U.S. beef exports to China have experienced a significant decline, according to recent data from the U.S. government. This downturn is attributed to Beijing allowing registrations to lapse that previously permitted hundreds of American meat facilities to export their products. The ongoing tariff conflict between the two nations has further complicated matters, increasing duties on U.S. meat and other goods, which has made them less appealing to Chinese buyers and worsened already strained relations.
As of March 16, 2025, China has not renewed the expired export registrations for U.S. beef facilities. However, it has updated registrations for pork and poultry plants, as reported by traders and the U.S. Meat Export Federation. In light of this uncertainty, both U.S. exporters and Chinese buyers are hesitant to finalize deals for American beef produced after the registration expiration date. Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the federation, highlighted this hesitance, indicating that the situation has created a significant barrier to trade.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture reveals that U.S. beef export sales to China for the week ending March 20, 2025, were virtually non-existent, totaling only 54 metric tons. This follows a similarly disappointing week prior, where sales amounted to just 192 metric tons. These figures stand in stark contrast to the weeks leading up to mid-February, where weekly sales were close to or above 2,000 metric tons for four consecutive weeks. This sharp decline in demand from China represents a major setback for U.S. meatpackers, including industry giants like Tyson Foods, which are already grappling with high cattle prices due to limited supplies.
In a related development, China has retaliated with tariffs on various Canadian agricultural exports in response to Ottawa’s tariffs imposed last fall on Chinese electric vehicles and metals. This escalation in trade tensions is particularly concerning as the agriculture sector is already facing challenges due to trade uncertainties with the United States.
China has imposed a staggering 100% tariff on Canadian exports of canola oil, canola oil-cake, and pea imports, in addition to 25% duties on pork and aquatic products. These tariffs are projected to affect approximately $2.9 billion of Canadian domestic exports in 2024, with seafood products comprising the largest share at nearly $1.2 billion. Canola oil and cake follow closely behind at $938 million, while pork products account for $467 million.
China also ranks as Canada’s second-largest export market for listed pea products, valued at $306 million. Despite this, the share of total Canadian exports to China has seen a decline over recent years. In 2019, China accounted for roughly $3.8 billion, or 25%, of the export value of these goods, but this figure has dropped to $2.9 billion, or 14%, by 2024. During the same period, Canadian exporters have increasingly turned their focus to the U.S., with exports rising from $7.2 billion, or 47%, in 2019 to $12.3 billion, or 60%, in 2024.
Among the provinces, Nova Scotia appears to be most exposed to these new tariffs. The affected goods account for approximately 9.2% of the province’s total domestic exports. Notably, China is Nova Scotia’s second-largest export market for lobsters, which amounted to nearly $452 million in export value in 2024. Other provinces like Newfoundland & Labrador, with shrimp exports valued at $105 million, and Saskatchewan, with canola oil and cake exports at $515 million, are also significantly affected.
China's history of imposing tariffs on Canadian agricultural products is not new. In 2019, restrictions on certain Canadian canola exporters led to a sharp decline in imports of Canadian canola seeds to China. The Canola Council of Canada estimated that between March 2019 and August 2020, these actions resulted in losses ranging from $1.54 billion to $2.35 billion in reduced export volumes and prices for Canadian exporters.
Industry experts warn that if these tariffs persist, Canadian canola farmers could face job losses, declines in production volumes, and cuts in capital investments beyond those already underway. Salim Zanzana, an economist with RBC Economics, notes that the recent measures, introduced on March 20, 2025, followed an anti-discrimination investigation into Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and metals. This situation raises the specter of further trade barriers, with China conducting ongoing anti-dumping investigations into Canadian canola and chemical products.
Given that China remains Canada’s largest export market for canola seeds, valued at approximately $4 billion in 2024, any additional restrictions could have significant economic repercussions for the industry. The potential for escalation in trade conflicts poses a challenge not just for Canadian agricultural exporters, but also for the broader economic landscape as tensions between major trading partners continue to rise.
In summary, the dual challenges of declining U.S. beef exports to China and retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products highlight the fragility of international trade relations. As both countries navigate these turbulent waters, the implications for exporters, consumers, and the agricultural sector at large are profound.
