Kyiv and Washington have reportedly reached a significant agreement allowing the United States access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources, potentially transforming the economic and resource dynamics for both countries. This deal, made public amid discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is not simply about resource extraction; it is also closely tied to the security guarantees Ukraine desperately seeks following years of aggression from Russia.
This groundbreaking agreement is set to be signed during President Zelensky’s upcoming visit to Washington, with expectations running high. Zelensky referred to the current framework as something to be "tightened up" during future discussions, indicating there are still nuances to be ironed out. Key to this deal is the establishment of a joint fund intended to facilitate revenue sharing for the mineral resources developed under this agreement, representing both nations' interests in long-term prosperity.
Initially, Trump demanded significant compensation for the aid provided to Ukraine since the onset of the Russian invasion, with the figure reaching $500 billion—a sum far exceeding the current estimated U.S. aid of approximately $120 billion. Such terms were met with staunch resistance from Zelensky, who stated he would not agree to create future debts for his country, remarking, "The main thing for me was […] we are not a debtor," (reported by various media outlets including The Financial Times and The Kyiv Independent). Reports suggest the contentious financial clauses have been removed from the latest draft.
The new agreement does, nonetheless, specify collaborative efforts between the U.S. and Ukraine to develop these valuable mineral resources. Shared revenues are to be funneled directly to the new joint U.S.-Ukrainian fund, which will reinvest at least half of all earnings back within Ukraine annually. Although specifics about the fund's ownership remain vague, Zelensky has indicated, "It's too early to talk about money," urging patience until subsequent negotiations fix the finer points.
A substantial missing piece remains the security guarantees Ukraine insists must accompany this deal. Ukraine sees such guarantees as necessary to deter any future Russian aggression—a recurring theme voiced by Zelensky for over a year. He has floated the idea of trading access to Ukraine's natural wealth for solid security commitments ever since articulately outlining his five-point Victory Plan last October. Ukraine has always held aspirations of NATO membership, yet it's clear Washington is not prepared to move on this front, especially considering Moscow’s vocal opposition to NATO’s expansion.
The security clause presented within the agreement appears to shift responsibility rather than deliver guarantees, stating only U.S. support for Ukraine’s efforts to obtain the necessary security arrangements for achieving lasting peace. Zelensky expressed frustration, saying, "I wanted at least a phrase about security guarantees… This sentence appeared," (reported by various sources). The overall tone still feels ambiguous about the level of support Ukraine can expect.
Regarding the minerals themselves, the agreement highlights Ukraine's wealth, which encompasses around 5% of the globe's mineral resources. Among the country’s most notable offerings are manganese—ranked as the eighth-largest producer globally—titanium and graphite, which are particularly coveted for their roles within the electric battery market. Shockingly, Ukraine is home to approximately 20% of the world’s estimated graphite resources and claims significant deposits of lithium, which has yet to be developed. Despite these riches, many of these deposits remain underutilized, some even situated within territories occupied by Russian forces.
Additional complications arise with the noted rare earth metals in six locations, which require around $300 million for development at the Novopoltavske site, touted as one of the largest of its kind globally. Yet the grim reality is these resources are often located near active conflict zones, complicate safety and extraction efforts. For example, the Shevchenko deposit lies perilously close to the frontlines, just 10 kilometers from Ukrainian positions facing Russian advances.
Therefore, the stakes are incredibly high—not just for economic reasons but also for their broader geopolitical significance. U.S. investment and interest could bolster Ukraine's position against Russia, especially with Moscow indicating support for U.S. ventures within Russian-occupied territories. Consequently, as Zelensky and Trump prepare to solidify this arrangement, the future of both nations hangs precariously on the details yet to be decided.