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19 February 2025

U.S. And Russia Shift Course On Ukraine Talks Under Trump

With Ukraine sidelined, U.S. approaches Russia suggest new diplomatic possibilities and concerns from Kyiv.

Recent diplomatic talks between the United States and Russia have signaled a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump as both nations explored pathways to end the protracted war in Ukraine. Held on February 18, 2025, at Diriyah Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the meeting included U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and senior aides but controversially excluded representatives from Ukraine and European nations, prompting significant backlash from Kyiv.

The discussions, described as the first substantive high-level engagement since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began nearly three years ago, were marked by Trump's unexpected dismissal of Ukraine's concerns about its exclusion. During remarks at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stating, "Today I heard, 'Oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you've been there for three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." Such comments reflect Trump's increasingly favorable posture toward Russia and starkly contrasting approach from his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Throughout the talks, Rubio articulated the potential for rebuilding U.S.-Russia relations, citing possible benefits for both countries should peace be established. He stated, "Ending the war could 'unlock the door' for 'incredible opportunities' to partner with Russians on common interests." These remarks suggest yet another pivot away from the previously held view of Russia as a geopolitical adversary, emphasizing cooperation over confrontation.

Meanwhile, Lavrov echoed notions of goodwill and mutual respect, asserting, "We not only listened, but also heard each other," indicating possible avenues for future progress. Both diplomats agreed on the necessity of forming high-level teams dedicated to fostering negotiations leading to peace.

Ukraine’s reaction to its exclusion from the talks was swift and combative, with President Zelenskyy expressing dismay, stating, "No decision can be made without Ukraine on how to end the war." He highlighted the potential consequences of sidelining Ukraine, which has been at the forefront of the conflict since Russia’s incursion.

Zelenskyy’s absence from the talks has ignited fears among Ukrainian officials and European allies alike, with many believing the discussions could lead to unfavorable outcomes for Ukraine without its direct involvement. The enduring conflict has already resulted in staggering casualties and displacement within Ukraine, raising these anxieties to new levels.

International observers have noted the unprecedented nature of these dialogues, particularly with Trump’s remarks seeming to downplay Russia’s culpability. This notion of blame has drawn criticism, particularly from within the U.S. and European political circles. Reflecting this sentiment, one Ukrainian official vented frustrations, commenting on the lack of communication from U.S. officials about their intentions and concerns over potential concessions.

European leaders have increasingly expressed trepidation about the U.S. potentially abandoning its allies. Critics worry about Trump’s apparent willingness to accommodate Russian demands, including his previous statements about Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and concessions relating to occupied territories. The British Prime Minister and French President have suggested the possibility of committing troops to Ukraine, reaffirming their support for Kyiv under any future peace deal.

Despite these concerns, the Trump administration indicated it would move quickly toward negotiations. U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz reiterated the administration’s commitment, asserting, "No one is being sidelined here." He emphasized the importance of engaging all parties involved, even if the immediate tactical decisions initially excluded Ukrainian representation.

The political ramifications are vast and complex. Trump’s comments signal not just his individual foreign policy inclinations but suggest the potential for reshaping U.S. diplomatic relations with traditional allies and adversaries alike. By prioritizing dialogue with Moscow over consultations with Kyiv, there is palpable concern of undermining long-standing commitments to NATO and European security.

Experts fear the outcome of these dialogues may resonate throughout the geopolitical sphere, fundamentally altering perceptions of the U.S. and its role on the global stage. The quest for peace, often seen as noble, may come with costs to principles upheld by previous administrations.

The Riyadh talks may be only the beginning of what could be substantial negotiations leading to possible peace settlements, yet the pathway is fraught with challenges and risks. The importance of Ukrainian inclusion cannot be overstated; without it, the legitimacy and sustainability of any agreement remains tenuous and likely to face significant opposition both domestically and internationally.

Looking to the future, both the U.S. and Russia must navigate these discussions delicately, with varying interests and confrontational pasts. It remains to be seen how the situation will evolve and whether Trump’s optimistic portrayal of U.S.-Russia relations can be substantiated with viable, mutual agreements.