The third round of meetings aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine kicked off on Monday, March 24, 2025, in Saudi Arabia, as officials from the United States and Russia sought to make significant strides toward ending the prolonged conflict. This diplomatic endeavor comes a day after American and Ukrainian officials convened to discuss proposals to safeguard energy facilities and critical infrastructure amidst escalating tensions.
Historically, Ukraine's struggle against Russian aggression has drawn in international stakeholders, with the current negotiations reflecting President Donald Trump's commitment to ending the more than three years of hostilities. In Riyadh, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff led the American team and expressed optimism regarding the potential outcomes of this critical round of talks. "I think you're going to see in Saudi Arabia on Monday some real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries. And from that, you'll naturally gravitate to a full-on shooting ceasefire," he stated during an interview with Fox News.
On the eve of the negotiations, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz discussed the range of confidence-building measures being considered to foster peace. He emphasized the focus on a Black Sea maritime ceasefire aimed at facilitating trade, feeding back into the broader discussions surrounding energy infrastructure. "We are now going to talk about a Black Sea maritime ceasefire so that both sides can move grain, fuel, and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea," Waltz told CBS News.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has downplayed expectations, suggesting that the discussions are merely in their nascent stages. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed caution, noting, "We are only at the beginning of this path; there are difficult negotiations ahead." This statement highlights the complexities involved in achieving a sustainable resolution to the ongoing conflict.
The previous day's talks between the US and Ukrainian teams, led by Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, were described as productive. Umerov indicated that discussions included crucial matters such as the protection of vital energy infrastructure from attacks, although specific details on what the truce would entail remain uncertain. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underscored the urgency of obtaining a concrete commitment from Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt aggression, saying, "Whoever brought this war must take it back." Notably, just before the commencement of these talks, Russia conducted attacks across Ukraine, including in the capital Kyiv, resulting in several casualties.
The ongoing talks are not just limited to the immediate ceasefire plans but encapsulate broader discussions on a range of issues. In a bid to support Ukraine, Trump, along with his administration, has prioritized the return of Ukrainian children forcibly transferred to Russia, the exchange of prisoners of war, and the release of civilian detainees as significant components of ongoing negotiations.
The recently agreed-upon 30-day limited ceasefire, which Putin and Zelenskyy discussed recently, highlights both the delicate progress toward stopping attacks on energy infrastructure and the intricate balancing act both leaders must maintain to satisfy domestic and international stakeholders. However, it is important to remember that both parties have accused one another of violating these terms, adding a layer of skepticism to future agreements.
The scope of the negotiations reflects a multifaceted approach to ensuring long-term peace. Waltz mentioned the need for discussions on establishing the line of control as well as verification mechanisms and peacekeeping strategies to manage the ceasefire effectively. He remarked, "That gets into the details of verification and freezing the lines where they are," indicating an awareness of the complexities involved.
As these talks unfold, the involvement of European allies remains ambiguous. Trump’s disregard for European concerns has raised alarms as leaders there scramble to gain influence over peace negotiations. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's call for a "coalition of the willing" to propose peace terms demonstrates an evident desire for inclusivity and collaboration in establishing a resolution to the conflict.
Moscow's past withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal has also underscored the crucial role of this maritime route in facilitating trade, which both sides acknowledge as essential for war recovery. The current agenda for the latest talks is expected to heavily revolve around the specifics of reinstating this deal, as Peskov underscored it would be a key point of discussion.
While the US continues to back Ukraine politically and militarily, many experts highlight that the effectiveness of such support will weigh heavily on its ability to negotiate concessions from Russia. Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, remarked on the significance of the ongoing US support: "Washington's continued encouragement of Kyiv may have a positive effect in persuading Moscow to offer concessions." However, doubts persist about whether the administration will maintain the same level of backing seen under previous leaders.
The dynamic nature of the negotiations illustrates the complexity of modern warfare and diplomacy, as both military and humanitarian interests collide. With the might of international diplomacy converging on Saudi Arabia, all eyes will remain fixed on the outcomes that could reshape Eastern European geopolitics for years to come. As conversations continue to evolve, the implications of these discussions extend far beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia, influencing global security and economic stability.
The coming days will mark a critical juncture in determining whether tangible progress can be made in ceasing hostilities and paving the way for a sustainable peace, with hopes resting on a successful exchange of ideas and agreements in Riyadh.
