The competition between the United States and China has evolved dramatically over recent years, leading to major shifts not just geopolitically but also within the realms of trade, technology, and security. The rivalry can largely be seen as two distinct yet overlapping strategies—China’s push for influence among developing nations and the U.S.’s recalibration of its alliances and economic policies.
At the forefront of these strategies is the notion of institutional balancing. This approach has emerged as both superpowers vie to strengthen their positions and narrative on the global stage. China's methods tend to lean on inclusivity, seeking to engage and coalesce support among developing nations, particularly through broad multilateral organizations like the United Nations. By positioning itself as the representative of the Global South, China has made strides to directly oppose Western influence and assert its vision of global governance.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken articulated this growing rivalry during his address at Johns Hopkins University, stating, "the post-Cold War order is over." Such statements are significant, reflecting the U.S. acknowledgment of the rapidly changing dynamics of international relations and the urgent need to adapt its foreign policy to counter China’s influence.
China's approach can be described as 'big-number institutional balancing,' focusing on three main strategies: leveraging broad-based multilateral organizations, creating strategic agreements such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and establishing or reinforcing platforms like BRICS. These avenues are geared toward garnering numerical dominance, showcasing China's global reach, and presenting itself as the leader of the Global South.
For example, the Belt and Road Initiative, which involves partnerships with over 150 countries for infrastructure projects, epitomizes China's method of deepening ties with developing nations. This strategy not only promotes economic cooperation but also cultivates political alliances. Meanwhile, initiatives like the Chinese-facilitated Group of Friends of China’s Global Development Initiative show China's intent to anchor its diplomatic relations with growing economies.
On the other side, the U.S. has taken a more selective approach, aiming to establish compact, strategically aligned alliances. The Biden administration has shown commitment to re-engaging with international governance structures after the previous administration’s estrangement from multilateralism. It remains the largest financial contributor to international bodies like the UN but has adopted more protectionist policies, especially concerning trade with China.
One notable action has been the U.S.’s persistent tariffs on Chinese goods, which have drawn criticism and warnings from Chinese officials. The Chinese government has repeatedly claimed such economic tactics are detrimental to both economies, noting the absence of any winners in a trade war. MOFCOM spokesperson He Yadong emphasized this sentiment, stating, "No one will win a trade war or a tariff war," reflecting China’s desire for more cooperative economic policies.
Beyond legislative and economic maneuvering, technological competition stands as another significant battlefield. The U.S. is actively working to reshape global technological rules and supply chains to minimize dependency on China, especially evident with actions like the CHIPS and Science Act providing subsidies for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. This ‘reshoring’ initiative signals not just economic strategies but also national security imperatives, as technology becomes key to defense and economic strength.
Conversely, China’s power play involves increasing its technological advancements independently and through partnerships with developing countries, emphasizing digital infrastructure and innovation. This shift is aimed at constructing its technological ecosystems, indirectly combating the U.S. attempts to isolate it on the tech front through sanctions and export controls.
The dynamics of these strategies indicate growing tensions not just bilaterally between the U.S. and China, but also among their respective allies and partners. Countries within Southeast Asia, for example, find themselves having to navigate the competing influences of both powers. On one hand, their interests align with China's growing economic presence, yet they also share strategic and security ties with the U.S. This duality places smaller nations in complex but necessary roles amid this larger competition.
Therefore, as the U.S. hones its ally-centric strategies, leveraging close relationships with select partners based on shared values and geopolitical interests, China contrasts this with its broader, unifying stance aimed at the Global South. Diplomatic mechanisms like APEC summits and ASEAN meetings become platforms for both nations to assert their agendas, reaffirming alliances, or attempting to create rifts.
With this backdrop, the recent meetings between President Biden and President Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum showcased both nations' intent to communicate constructively about military ties and economic cooperation moving forward. The Chinese Defense Ministry accentuated the importance of U.S.-China relations bringing positivity to the global order, hinting at the need for collaboration rather than conflict.
Unquestionably, the future holds considerable uncertainty as both nations grapple with their competing views on global order, trade practices, and technological supremacy. The outcome of this contention will not only reshape U.S.-China relations but will also significantly influence international relations as global stakeholders watch closely to determine how best to position themselves amid great power competition.
Given these developments, analysts are left pondering whether the desire for stability and positive diplomatic engagement can translate to meaningful cooperation or if mistrust and rivalry will continue to escalate, overshadowing opportunities for common ground. For now, one thing seems clear: the U.S.-China rivalry is far from over, with each side poised to influence the future of global politics significantly.
