As the world commemorates Victory Day, a significant moment in history, the focus remains on the staggering human cost of the Great Patriotic War. According to Meduza, it is widely accepted that the USSR lost approximately 27 million people during this tumultuous period, a figure echoed by both esteemed scholars and Russian authorities. During recent negotiations with Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated this somber statistic, stating, "27 million lives were given by the Soviet Union, they were laid on the altar of the Fatherland and on the altar of victory." This figure is not just a number; it embodies the profound suffering and sacrifices made during a conflict that reshaped the world.
The question of the war's 'price' remains a deeply sensitive and politically charged topic, often viewed through the lens of belief rather than empirical evidence. However, understanding the methodologies behind these estimates can shed light on the true cost of the war. The classification of losses during wartime is a complex field that merges military history with demography. Researchers often distinguish between different types of casualties, which can significantly affect the overall understanding of the war's impact.
In 2005, researchers Betani Lachina and Nils Gledich proposed a classification system to better categorize wartime deaths. They outlined three main groups: military losses (deaths of combatants), combat losses (all killed in battle, including both military and civilian casualties), and all deaths attributed to the war. This nuanced approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the human toll of conflict.
Based on the findings of military historians, the total losses of the Armed Forces of the USSR are estimated at 8,668,400 people. This figure, however, underwent significant adjustments from an initial estimate of 11.4 million. Researchers had to subtract 2.77 million, which accounted for military personnel who had returned from captivity or were called back into service after the war had ended.
The year 1941 was particularly devastating for the Red Army, which lost 3.8 million personnel, nearly 3 million of whom were either reported missing or captured. This staggering loss set the stage for the broader demographic impacts that would follow.
By mid-1941, the population of the Soviet Union stood at around 196.7 million people. However, by the end of the war in December 1945, this number had dwindled to approximately 170.5 million. Of this population, only 159.4 million were born before mid-1941, meaning that the difference—37.2 million—represents those who 'disappeared' during the war. These individuals were either killed in combat, died from wounds or famine, or simply vanished due to the chaos of war.
During the war, around 16.53 million people were born, leading to an estimated 1.3 million 'extraordinary' infant deaths when compared to expected mortality rates had the war not occurred. By adding these figures together, researchers arrived at a total of approximately 26.66 million deaths related to the war, a number that includes both directly attributable deaths and those resulting from the war's broader societal impacts.
Most of these deaths were men, particularly those aged 24 to 35, a demographic that suffered a mortality rate of over 30% during the conflict. The war's toll on this age group was particularly severe, reflecting the brutal realities of combat and the societal upheaval that ensued.
It's important to recognize that the figure of 26.6 million is an estimate rather than an exact count. This statistic does not provide specific reasons for each death, nor does it differentiate between causes such as combat, disease, starvation, or state repression. Moreover, the complexities of migration during this period further complicate the understanding of these figures.
While some researchers argue against equating excess deaths during the war with deaths caused by the war, this debate often centers on terminology rather than concrete calculations. The primary uncertainties surrounding these estimates stem from the quality of census data used to derive population figures for 1941 and 1945. The last census before the war was conducted in 1939, and the subsequent political changes drastically altered the demographic landscape.
To address these challenges, researchers like Evgeny Andreev, Leonid Darsky, and Tatiana Kharkova have worked to refine these estimates. Their publication, "The Population of the Soviet Union 1922-1991," provides a detailed account of these demographic shifts and the methodologies used to arrive at their conclusions. This work has been validated by subsequent studies from Western demographers, confirming the reliability of their approach and the estimated death toll of 26 to 27 million.
As the 9th of May approaches, preparations for Victory Day celebrations are underway, with millions expected to participate in events across the country. The Ministry of Internal Affairs is taking extensive measures to ensure public safety during these gatherings. Employees have been placed on round-the-clock duty, focusing on monitoring areas with high concentrations of citizens, including parks, memorials, and central squares.
All event locations will feature multiple inspection points equipped with both portable and stationary scanners to detect metal objects. Special provisions are in place for veterans, disabled citizens, and families with children, allowing them to access designated corridors marked with bright orange flags.
The Ministry has emphasized that carrying any type of weapon—including firearms, pneumatic weapons, and edged weapons—along with explosive substances, toxic liquids, alcoholic beverages, and pyrotechnics, is strictly prohibited. Any individuals found with such items will be promptly removed from the premises.
On May 9, partial traffic restrictions will be implemented near major celebration sites, with public transport redirected along alternative routes. The Ministry advises participants to plan their journeys in advance and expect possible delays due to security checks, which may take up to 15 minutes.
In case of suspicious activity or forgotten items, attendees are urged to contact the nearest police detail immediately. The republican video surveillance network has been activated to ensure rapid response to potential threats, with round-the-clock patrols and mobile response teams ready to act.
As millions gather to honor the sacrifices of the past, the collaboration between citizens and law enforcement will be crucial to ensuring a safe and respectful observance of Victory Day. The official portal of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will provide updated maps of restricted traffic zones and checkpoint diagrams to assist participants.
