The weather forecast for Holy Week (Semana Santa) 2025 in Seville is generating concern among the local religious brotherhoods, as predictions indicate a potentially rainy period that could disrupt traditional celebrations. With the first indications emerging just over a week before Palm Sunday (Domingo de Ramos, April 13, 2025), meteorologists are closely monitoring atmospheric conditions and refining their predictions.
According to the latest updates from the meteorological model of Meteored, the weather during Holy Week is expected to be influenced by a series of storms affecting Spain. The model suggests that a sudden stratospheric warming in the Arctic may alter the jet stream, leading to significant changes in weather patterns across Europe. This could mean new storms and colder air for Spain, particularly during the central days of Holy Week, which fall in mid-April.
As the week progresses, temperatures are anticipated to remain within the seasonal average from April 14 to April 20, 2025, with slight cold anomalies expected in southern regions and somewhat higher values in the archipelagos. However, predicting rainfall during this spring period is notoriously challenging, and experts warn that current forecasts carry a low reliability. Meteorologists emphasize that the atmosphere is likely to remain dynamic, with storms in constant motion that could result in sporadic precipitation across Spain.
Juan Antonio Salado, a meteorologist who updates forecasts daily, points out that models indicate a 75% probability of rain on the Friday of Sorrows (Viernes de Dolores, April 11, 2025) and Passion Saturday (Sábado de Pasión, April 12, 2025). He notes that the risk of precipitation could extend into Palm Sunday, with a 60% chance of rain, tapering to 40% in the days that follow. Salado's forecasts suggest that while there may be some dry spells, the overall trend leans towards a wetter Holy Week.
Meanwhile, the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has also acknowledged the likelihood of rain during the early days of April, advising that the atmosphere will be unstable. AEMET's territorial delegate, Juan de Dios del Pino, mentioned that while the probability of rain throughout Holy Week is low, the weeks leading up to it have been characterized by increased rainfall, suggesting that some rain is indeed possible.
In a more favorable outlook, the weather portal eltiempo.es predicts a drier start to Holy Week, with little chance of rain from the Friday of Sorrows through Holy Monday (April 14, 2025). However, the uncertainty remains high, as the meteorological landscape can change rapidly.
Experts like climatologist Samuel Biener have presented findings indicating that the year 2025 will likely be one of the warmest on record, driven by a combination of elevated temperatures across land, sea, and air. This warming trend contributes to more intense storms and rainfall events, which could have serious implications for Holy Week. Biener emphasizes that the current climatic conditions are creating an environment that fosters extreme weather events, including the potential for heavy rainfall during this spring.
Antonio Delgado, a professor of physics and a well-known meteorologist in Seville, echoed these sentiments, stating that the first meteorological models suggest a rainy April. He highlighted that the early days of Holy Week could see rain due to the arrival of a trough, which could lead to unstable weather conditions. Delgado also noted that the absence of high-pressure systems, which typically stabilize weather, indicates that a stable start to Holy Week is unlikely.
Overall, the forecasts for Holy Week 2025 present a picture filled with uncertainty. With meteorologists indicating a high likelihood of rain and unstable weather patterns, the religious brotherhoods are left to hope for the best while preparing for the possibility of disruptions to their processions. As the days draw nearer, the community remains vigilant, watching the sky and the weather reports closely.
In conclusion, while the forecasts for Holy Week 2025 suggest a higher chance of rain than usual, the situation remains fluid. As meteorologists continue to refine their predictions, it is clear that the weather will play a significant role in shaping the events of this important week in Seville. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the traditional processions can proceed as planned or if they will be affected by the unpredictable nature of spring weather in Spain.
