The global alarm over asteroid 2024 YR4 has sounded louder this week, drawing attention not just from scientists but also from global agencies like the United Nations and space organizations across the world. The initial alert issued was a response to the asteroid's approaching path, which experts are now taking increasingly seriously, as the chance of it colliding with Earth has risen from 1.5% to 2.3%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be about 90 meters wide, poses a risk akin to the destructive power of atomic bombs. The potential wreckage from such an impact, especially if it were to strike near populated areas, could lead to catastrophic consequences. Current predictions suggest the asteroid's potential collision date is set for December 22, 2032, when it is likely to fall most probably over the eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting regions including parts of northern South America and extending over the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, and southern Asia.
This week marked a historic moment as the UN activated the Planetary Security Protocol for the very first time due to asteroid YR4's threatening approach. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), led by NASA, is now mobilized to gather and analyze data, calculating the asteroid's precise orbit and assessing its impact risk. Experts are engaged to determine the asteroid's composition, rotation, and potential trajectories.
According to Juan Luis Cano, coordinator of NASA’s Planetary Defense Office, "the asteroid 2024 YR4 has a size greater than 50 meters and has a probability of impact above 1% at some point over the next 50 years." This statement aligns with the fact some smaller asteroids hit Earth annually, often unnoticed and without significant damage due to their small size. The article highlights the importance of monitoring larger asteroids closely, as they present real threats.
Alongside YR4, experts are also focusing on Bennu, another troubling body on the radar. With dimensions equivalent to the Tower of Eiffel at about 0.5 kilometers, Bennu is considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, entering Earth’s vicinity every six years. Its predicted collision date is September 24, 2182, when theoretical calculations indicate it could release between 100 and 400 million tons of dust upon impact, severely affecting the climate, biodiversity, and food security on Earth. It’s alarming to note, as quoted by scientists at IBS of the National University of Pusan, “100 and 400 million tons of dust would enter the atmosphere.” Such magnitude could set off climate changes comparable to the ice ages, dropping temperatures up to 4ºC and significantly reducing rainfall.
René Duffard from the Andalusian Institute of Astrophysics noted, "It takes about 20 minutes for it to complete one full rotation, and it is shaped somewhat like a potato, elongated rather than round.” These details provide eerie insight about YR4's movement through space.
Should the threats from asteroids amplify, the scientific community is prepared with strategies like diverting trajectories using robotic spacecraft—an approach successfully demonstrated by NASA's DART mission. Strategies for potentially deflecting these cosmic menaces are still under careful consideration as the threat assessment evolves.
When considering the recent asteroids, it's worth recalling the last major space body to impact Earth, which occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia, back on February 15, 2013. This explosion released energy equivalent to over 30 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb, injuring around 1,500 people and causing substantial property damage.
Global awareness and discourse around these celestial threats are necessary as the discussions around safety protocols and potential asteroid impacts gather momentum. The broader goal remains clear: ensuring our planet is prepared for anything the vast cosmos might throw our way.
The emphasis is on definitive risk assessment strategies, international cooperation, and continued research to keep humankind safe from these somewhat hidden empower risks of cosmic collisions, and the urgency to mobilize planetary defense protocols as evidenced by the situation with asteroid 2024 YR4 makes this crystal clear.