The political tensions surrounding the UK’s Chagos Islands deal are resurfacing as the British government prepares to hand over control of the disputed archipelago to Mauritius. This move, which has been mired in controversy and geopolitical significance, centers around the strategic military base of Diego Garcia, pivotal for both the UK and United States military operations.
Under plans proposed by Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government, Mauritius will gain sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, including Diego Garcia, which has functioned as a military hub for decades. Although the deal reportedly aims to comply with international law—following the 2019 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) urging the UK to return the islands—it has raised eyebrows among critics concerned about the potential fallout on UK-US relations and regional stability.
The Chagos Islands have been largely uninhabited since the UK expelled its native Chagossian population between 1965 and 1973 to make way for the American military base. Many argue this historical injustice adds emotional weight to the current negotiations, emphasizing ethical and legal responsibilities tied to the return of the islands.
Critics of the proposed deal have voiced significant alarm over the possibility of infrastructure investments by Chinese firms, following Mauritius’s acquisition of sovereignty, which could redefine security dynamics within the Indian Ocean. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, responded emphatically, stating: “This dangerous surrender must be stopped or our security relationship with the United States will be over.”
Former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has echoed similar concerns, labeling the deal as “an utter shambles,” and highlighting perceived government negligence concerning the nation’s security interests.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam of Mauritius has expressed optimism about the imminent signing of the deal, likely to occur on March 12, aligning with the country’s independence day. Ramgoolam previously described the dialogue with the UK as “cordial,” but the proposed agreement faces scrutiny due to its long-term impacts.
Beyond immediate political ramifications, analysts warn about the risk of creating opportunities for China to extend its influence over the islands. If Mauritius can forge agreements allowing foreign investments, concerns arise about possible military installations or surveillance capabilities being established, reminiscent of tensions witnessed in the South China Sea.
Starmer is also anticipated to discuss the deal during his upcoming visit to Washington, where he will meet with Donald Trump. This meeting is particularly timely as the Trump administration is expected to weigh the strategic significance of the deal on US military presence and operations at Diego Garcia.
The deal, consisting of £9 billion over its 99-year course, has raised questions about its impact on British taxpayers. While government officials have downplayed earlier estimates of £18 billion, they acknowledge the final cost may surge upwards of £50 billion due to inflation-linked payments.
The UK government aims to maintain control over the military base for the next century, arguing it is the best approach to manage complex geopolitical realities. Lawmakers believe this framework can address the perceived threats from both China and increased scrutiny from international legal assessments.
British officials have also initiated discussions to establish security provisions surrounding the Diego Garcia base, aiming to create buffer zones to exclude unwanted foreign activities. Nonetheless, uncertainty looms over whether the UK will maintain veto rights over any projects laid forth by Mauritius or potential foreign contractors.
Supporters of the deal underline its importance for British national security and compliance with international mandates, pointing to the need to secure military operations amid heightened global tensions. Within this framework, the continuation of British military presence is deemed indispensable to counter potential risks stemming from regional adversaries.
Analysts also note the precarious position of the UK government, as opposition parties and former Conservative leaders raise concerns over both the negotiation process and future geopolitical ramifications. Mark Francois, shadow Armed Forces minister, questioned the reliability of government claims, saying, “If Mauritius were permitted to build installations on the outer islands, either of their own or with the assistance of a foreign power, what is the point of giving them £18 billion?”
Legal experts assert the urgency of reaching this agreement, with fears of losing the islands to inappropriate regime changes or international court rulings should the British government fail to adhere to the ICJ directive.
Despite the challenges, officials involved remain hopeful the deal will strengthen ties with Mauritius and stabilize operations at Diego Garcia. The resolution of the Chagos dispute eventually becomes as much about historical justice as it is about military strategy, embodying the complex interplay between international relations, historical injustices, and sheer geopolitical necessity.