Ukrainians Hold Mixed Views on Trump’s Victory and Peace Prospects
With the inauguration of Donald Trump looming, Ukrainians appear to harbor cautious optimism about the potential for peace in their war-torn nation, according to a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The poll observed varied sentiments, with nearly half of the respondents believing Trump's electoral win could bring peace closer.
Specifically, the survey revealed 45% of Ukrainians think the upcoming Trump presidency could accelerate the end of hostilities. Out of those, 15% expressed they believe peace is now much closer, and 30% indicated it is only slightly closer. Conversely, only 14% felt the situation was moving away from peace altogether. This nuanced perception showcases both hope and hesitance—virtually half of those surveyed are unconvinced or neutral about the prospects for change.
Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, noted, “Even now, about 80% of Ukrainians believe in the possibility of success in the war with proper support from Western allies.” This overwhelming belief is countered by frustrations over delays and inadequacies in military support from the west, leading to irritation over statements by US officials who suggest Ukraine is overestimizing its need for weaponry.
On the military front, the Biden administration is expected to announce $1.25 billion in military assistance to Ukraine before Trump assumes office on January 20, 2025. This significant aid package includes munitions for various defense systems, such as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and artillery rounds. Critics worry the timing and implementation of this aid might not align with Trump’s policies, sparking concerns about maintaining adequate military support for Ukraine.
Discussions around Trump's presidency have struck both hope and uncertainty among US and European leaders, who fear his approach toward negotiations—and the potential for his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin—might compromise the sovereignty and interests of Ukraine. Trump has previously spoken about wanting to establish some sort of negotiated settlement, raising alarms about whether it would yield favorable terms for Ukraine.
The concerns are echoed by Hrushetskyi, who emphasized the complicated feelings held by many Ukrainians about what Trump’s administration might mean for their future. “Only 7% of respondents believe peace can be completely fair for Ukraine, and 11% believe it will be completely unfair,” he stated. The bulk of respondents expressed mixed feelings, indicating uncertainty concerning the balance of demands between Ukraine and Russia should negotiations start.
Many Ukrainians realize the substantial aid they’ve received from the Biden administration, with estimates showing US security assistance has exceeded $50.8 billion since the onset of the conflict due to Russia's full-scale invasion beginning February 2022. Yet, there remains apprehension about Trump’s commitment to sustaining this level of assistance.
The backdrop to these sentiments is intensified by Russia’s recent actions, including missile attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure. Military conflict has not only ravaged the region but raised existential questions about the future of Ukraine’s stability and sovereignty. With the added element of non-sequencing Northern Korean troops supporting Russia, the stakes are incredibly high.
Interestingly, Russian officials reacted to Trump’s victory, providing warnings against potential resets, including the resumption of nuclear weapons testing. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, voiced the Kremlin's unfavorable disposition toward American policies under Trump, citing previous refusals to ratify important international treaties as escalations of hostility.
Near the end of 2024, many Ukrainians reflect on the decade-long assistance from Western allies, and their apprehensions loom large as they approach the new year with limited confidence. Surveys conducted across various Ukrainian regions show their reactions are tempered with uncertainty, with perceptual divides based on regional sentiments—some showing slightly more optimism than others.
While Trump’s presidency begins to take shape, its full impact on the relentless conflict remains to be fully realized. Ukrainians are caught between encouraging possibilities and troubling forebodings, dicturing their willingness to wait and see how the geopolitical chessboard develops.
Where hope is present, so is skepticism as Ukrainians stand at the crossroads of their future—desiring peace but uncertain about the strings attached. What remains consistent, though, are their hopes for necessary military support and favorable international dynamics moving forward.
