The global export market is experiencing notable shifts, particularly as Ukrainian scrap metal exports plummet and Greek small businesses struggle to maintain their international foothold. A recent analysis by GMK Center revealed startling figures for January 2025, indicating Ukraine's scrap industry saw exports decrease by 50.3% year-on-year, dwindling to just 15.69 thousand tons. Experts attribute this significant downturn to various factors, underscoring the volatile nature of the current global market.
According to GMK Center, these numbers mark the lowest level of exports since May of the previous year. Specifically, Poland has emerged as the primary destination for these raw materials, receiving 15.47 thousand tons, which accounts for 98.5% of Ukraine’s total scrap export shipments. Smaller volumes were directed toward Germany, showing the drastic contraction as revenues from scrap exports fell by 52.4% month-on-month, and 13.2% year-on-year, totaling only $4.41 million.
The decline starkly contrasts with the trends seen throughout 2024, where Ukraine's scrap exports surged by 60% compared to 2023, reaching 293.2 thousand tons. This recovery spurred optimism about the health of the scrap industry, highlighting Poland, Greece, and Germany as key consumers of Ukrainian raw materials.
Meanwhile, the situation for Greek exporters presents its own challenges. Recent statistics from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) indicate fewer small businesses were able to sell products internationally compared to 2022. The data shows significant concerns within the Greek export culture, which may hinder economic growth. Official figures from 2023 highlight 19,393 businesses engaged in exports valued at €47.35 billion, contrasting with 19,154 businesses producing €51.74 billion the previous year.
Among these companies, 87.3% or 16,993 were small enterprises employing 0-49 people, and their exports accounted for just 20.9% of the total—a decline from 21.7% in 2022. This troubling trend raises questions about the competitiveness of Greek products and the waning export mentality among small business owners. Notably, medium-sized businesses have fared slightly differently, with the number of enterprises exporting within this category rising from 1,501 to 1,572, yet the total export value remains lower. The exports from medium-sized enterprises accounted for 20.3% of the overall exports, shrinking from 21.7% the prior year.
Large enterprises, defined as those employing more than 250 people, continue to dominate Greek exports, representing nearly 60% of total value—€27.78 billion. This figure has increased from last year's 56.5% share. The concentration of export activity remains high, as just five companies—including Motor Oil, ElvalHalcor, and Mytilineos—account for approximately 29.5% of the total value of Greek exports, illustrating the aggregation of market power among larger players.
This juxtaposition of Ukraine and Greece reflects wider trends within the global export market, with varying performance across regions. Ukrainian export dynamics have been marked by diminished volumes due to competitive pressures and changing demand landscapes, particularly from key markets like Poland. On the other hand, Greece continues grappling with its export culture, which is seeing stability among larger firms but stagnation or decline among smaller enterprises.
With mixed dynamics prevailing, the global scrap market began 2025 under distinctly contrasting pressures. Reports indicate rising prices within the US and Europe amid limited supply and growing demand, yet Chinese market activity remains weak due to downturns within the steel industry. Even Turkey, one of the major importers, is currently experiencing market volatility, though signs of recovery began surfacing this February.
Now, as Ukrainian exporters recalibrate to find stability and balance against their economic backdrop, and as Greek businesses are urged to rethink their approach to exports, the future remains uncertain. The ability of these nations to adapt to changing conditions will determine the sustainability of their export industries moving forward, particularly as global trends evolve. Observers and stakeholders are left pondering how these developments may shape the competitive landscapes of both Ukrainian and Greek exports for the foreseeable future.