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25 March 2025

Ukraine's Scrap Exports Surge As Cherry Demand Soars

Ukraine sees record scrap exodus while New Zealand cherries hit historic export values.

Ukraine's Scrap Industry Sees Record Exports Amid Increased Demand

In the rapidly evolving landscape of global trade, Ukraine's scrap industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly noted in its February 2025 report which highlights a remarkable 61.1% year-on-year increase in ferrous scrap exports. This surge brings the total exports to 25.28 thousand tons for the month, marking a recovery after a dip to its lowest levels since May of the previous year.

According to GMK Center's calculations based on data from the State Customs Service, Ukrainian scrap exports rebounded as January's figures showed a notable decline. The total scrap exported in the first two months of 2025 reached 40.98 thousand tons, up 1.6% from the same period last year, indicating strengthening demand in the market.

Poland has cemented its position as the primary destination for Ukrainian scrap, receiving an overwhelming 38.85 thousand tons, which amounts to 94.8% of all exports. Bulgaria and Germany made negligible contributions with 1.57 thousand tons and 0.5 thousand tons, respectively. The Polish market alone saw shipments increase by 51.1% month-over-month in February 2025, with figures climbing to 23.38 thousand tons.

Revenue from these scrap exports improved significantly by 68.2% in comparison to January, reaching $7.41 million in February. However, this represents a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year. As GMK Center previously reported, 2024 was a banner year for Ukraine’s scrap exports, which soared by 60% compared to 2023, peaking at 293.2 thousand tons.

In terms of growth, 2023 set a new benchmark with exports exceeding 182.5 thousand tons, a dramatic increase from just 54.1 thousand tons in 2022. Major consumers during 2024 included Poland, with 248.6 thousand tons, Greece with 34.2 thousand tons, and Germany with 6.5 thousand tons.

Amid these developments, global scrap prices are also experiencing fluctuations. Data indicates a slight uptick in prices from $337 per ton to $355 per ton FOB Rotterdam between March 7 and March 21, 2025. This increase correlates with a rise in domestic scrap prices across several European nations, including Italy, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany, and Eastern Europe, with a range of €15-20 per ton noted.

Meanwhile, in another part of the globe, New Zealand's cherry export market is thriving despite earlier challenges faced by the horticulture sector. With resilience at the forefront, cherry exports reached a staggering 5.07 million kg in the 2024/25 season. This figure not only reflects a 33% boost from the previous season but also surpasses the 2017/18 record of 4.2 million kg, generating an unprecedented $124 million in export value.

Over the past two decades, New Zealand's cherry export volume has skyrocketed nearly sixfold, while export values have surged twelvefold. Notably, the annual average implied export prices saw a slight increase, now resting at $24.44 per kg, demonstrating a balance between rising supply and sustained demand.

Asia remains the largest market for New Zealand cherries, with Taiwan accounting for an impressive 46% of total exports in 2025. China stands as the second-largest market, even though its share of exports has dipped from 19% to nearly 15% this year, maintaining a consistent volume compared to the previous season. Vietnam ranks third, importing just under 11% of New Zealand cherry exports.

Additionally, the United States has emerged as the seventh-largest destination for New Zealand cherries, with an import of 144,000 kg, indicating an increase from 1.7% to 2.8% of total exports. However, challenges remain within the US market. Conversely, growth signals have come from the Middle East, with the United Arab Emirates importing 60,000 kg, representing more than triple imports from the previous season, while Saudi Arabia also saw a significant increase to 25,000 kg.

In summary, the thriving Ukrainian scrap export market alongside New Zealand's booming cherry exports not only reflects the dynamic shifts within global trade but also indicates strong consumer demand and market resilience in various sectors.