In a significant development for Ukraine's energy sector, experts predict that by 2030, Ukrainian biomethane producers could supply up to 1 billion cubic meters of this renewable fuel to the European Union. Maciej Zaniewicz, a project expert from Green Deal Ukraine and a senior analyst at Forum Energii in Poland, co-authored a study titled "Potential for Cooperation between Ukraine and the EU in the Field of Biomethane." According to Zaniewicz, the actual volume of biomethane production in Ukraine could closely match this target, potentially representing about 0.5% of the EU's demand.
"We believe that the actual volume of biomethane production in Ukraine can be around 1 billion cubic meters by 2030," Zaniewicz stated in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine. He emphasized that the high demand for biomethane in the EU means that Ukrainian imports will not hinder the development of the EU's own biomethane industry.
While the potential for biomethane exports is promising, Zaniewicz cautioned that this fuel will not completely replace natural gas imports into the EU. "It is an important component for diversifying gas supply but will not fully replace imports," he explained.
Moreover, he warned of possible misinformation campaigns by pro-Russian factions, reminiscent of previous disinformation efforts regarding Ukrainian agricultural exports. Zaniewicz stressed the importance of providing reliable analyses based on objective data to clarify the situation surrounding Ukrainian biomethane producers.
The first batch of Ukrainian biomethane, totaling 67,000 cubic meters, was exported by Vitagro to Germany on February 7, 2025. Vitagro operates a plant with an annual capacity of 3 million cubic meters of biomethane. Just days later, on February 11, the MHP biomethane plant Oril-Leader, located in the Dnipro region, exported 27,400 cubic meters to Germany via pipelines through the Ukrainian-Polish border, with Vitol as the buyer. The Oril-Leader facility has a capacity of 11 million cubic meters per year.
Additionally, Gals Agro Agro Holding has constructed a biomethane plant in the Chernihiv region, also with a capacity of 3 million cubic meters, and is preparing for product exports. At the Ukrainian Investment Congress held in Kyiv in early March 2025, Georgij Geletucha, Chairman of the Ukrainian Bioenergy Association (BAU), expressed optimism about Ukraine's future in the biomethane market. He stated that Ukraine could become a primary supplier of biomethane to the EU, with Ukrainian products potentially capturing 20% of the European market in the coming years.
Geletucha pointed out that Europe is expected to consume approximately 35 billion cubic meters of biomethane by 2030, while current European production is only around 3 billion cubic meters. He noted that the EU aims to ramp up its own production to 20 billion cubic meters within the next five years. However, he indicated that the ambitious target of producing and consuming 100 billion cubic meters of biomethane by 2050 may not be achievable due to a shortage of raw materials.
Should Ukraine manage to produce up to 15 billion cubic meters of biomethane, Geletucha believes the EU would eagerly purchase it. He also projected that the number of biomethane producers and potential exporters in Ukraine would expand by 2025, including additional facilities from MHP, Teofipol Energy Company, and the Józefów-Mykolaiv Biogas Company. Collectively, these plants are expected to produce a total of 111 million cubic meters of biomethane annually.
With production costs estimated at 900 EUR per 1,000 cubic meters for biomethane derived from plant or animal waste, and a market price ranging from 1,100 to 1,200 EUR per 1,000 cubic meters, Ukraine stands to gain significantly from exporting biomethane to the EU, potentially earning up to 100 billion EUR annually.
In parallel, the Ukrainian agricultural sector is bracing for changes that may arise from a potential European Union accession. According to Andriy Dykun, Chairman of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC), the agricultural sector is likely to export a maximum of 20% of its total production to the European market post-accession, with the majority remaining in traditional markets.
Dykun clarified that the EU's agricultural funds are not the primary motivation for Ukraine's interest in joining the European market. "Ukrainian farmers are not going to the EU to receive their subsidies. Our fear of their regulations outweighs our interest in their money," he stated.
Concerns over the stringent requirements of EU agricultural policy have been voiced by Ukrainian farmers, who, similar to their European counterparts, find the rules of the European Green Deal overly complex. "We are certainly not eager to adopt EU regulations in our agriculture," Dykun explained. He added that a transition period would be necessary for Ukrainian farmers to adapt to EU standards.
As Ukraine positions itself to become a key player in the biomethane market, the interplay between energy exports and agricultural policies will be crucial in shaping the country's economic landscape. The potential for growth in the biomethane sector, alongside the challenges posed by EU regulations, will require careful navigation as Ukraine seeks to enhance its role within the European market.
