Ukraine is grappling with immense challenges as it continues its fight against Russia, particularly concerning the negotiation of occupied territories. Dmytro Kuleba, the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister, has reiterated the impossibility of discussions with Russia as long as they hold any claim over these areas. According to Kuleba, "Currently, Russia considers the parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts it occupies as part of its constitutional domain," making peace talks seem unlikely.
Since 2014, Russia has been staunchly against negotiating over Crimea and much of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This unyielding position was echoed by Kuleba, who expressed doubts over the potential for dialogue under the current circumstances, stating, "Russian diplomacy is based on the principle of not negotiating about what they already believe is theirs and is non-negotiable." Despite this, there could be hope for future negotiations if Russia's stance shifts—a possibility Kuleba acknowledges but does not depend on.
International support remains pivotal for Ukraine as European nations gear up for discussions on bolstering military assistance. Reports indicate readiness from some EU countries to deploy combat troops to Ukraine, with Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Heorhii Tykhyi, confirming this commitment. While specifics on deployment might not be settled yet, the discussions highlight the urgency of Ukraine’s security situation, particularly as Kuleba's comments on negotiations serve as reminders of the complex interplay of negotiations with military reality.
Notably, this intensifying military cooperation includes the UK’s latest commitments to Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed strategic support during their recent call. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for the UK’s significant defense backing, particularly referencing the package announced on December 19 to strengthen Ukraine's Navy. He particularly commended the government’s decision to grant a GBP 2 billion loan to support local arms production, emphasizing the importance of utilizing frozen Russian assets for repayment.
"Only effective security guarantees can provide just and lasting peace for Ukraine," Zelenskyy asserted, emphasizing the necessity for international allies to commit to training and equipping Ukrainian brigades as demonstrated by the United States and France. This call for amplified support includes sanctions against Russia's maritime activities. Zelenskyy underscored the need to maximize restrictions on the Russian tanker fleet, which would not only impede Russia's war efforts but also protect the environment.
Within the broader public sentiment, there's been noticeable discussion surrounding nuclear armament as a potential security strategy for Ukraine. A recent poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology indicates about 73% of Ukrainians support the restoration of Ukraine's nuclear capabilities, reflecting significant shifts since Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Memorandum for international guarantees. "We hope our Western allies will demonstrate the necessary will and Ukraine will eventually receive effective security guarantees without the need for Ukraine to explore difficult options to protect itself from Russia," noted Anton Hrushetskyi, the institute’s executive director.
The poll, which interviewed 2,000 respondents living within Ukraine-controlled territories, reflects how public opinion has evolved, now seeing half of respondents willing to pursue nuclear development even at the risk of provoking Western sanctions. This viewpoint starkly contrasts with sentiments expressed just three decades earlier when only one-third of Ukrainians supported retaining nuclear capabilities.
Despite these sentiments, Kyiv has consistently maintained its commitment to non-proliferation, asserting the desire for NATO membership as the most viable security guarantee. The intricacies of how Ukraine navigates this duality—its aspiration for nuclear weapons against the calls for alliances with NATO—reflect the urgent pressures the country faces.
Ukraine continues its fierce fight for territorial integrity and sovereignty, and with international military support, including possible troop deployments and loans for arms production, it appears the country is positioning itself not only for immediate defense against Russian aggression but also for sustained security and stability. The international community's response will undoubtedly shape the next chapters of this conflict.
The situation remains fluid, with the outcomes of negotiations uncertain and public sentiment grappling with the challenging realities of war. The pressing need for effective security guarantees alongside deepening military cooperation seems clearer than ever as Ukraine seeks to forge its path forward amid the turmoil.
