On January 1, 2025, Ukraine officially ceased the transit of Russian gas, marking the end of a significant energy relationship and indicating broader geopolitical ramifications. The termination followed the expiration of the transit contract between Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz and Russia's Gazprom, which had been previously established to facilitate gas deliveries to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterized the suspension as one of Russia's most considerable defeats. He pointed out the historical significance of the transit route, recalling, "When Putin was handed power... today, it’s zero," illustrating the stark transformation from more than 130 billion cubic meters of gas flowing annually just over two decades ago to none at present. This cessation of gas supplies reflects the dramatic turn of events resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which aimed at controlling Ukraine's gas transmission system to stop payments to Naftogaz, according to columnist Ivan Yakovina.
Yakovina remarked, "Halting gas supplies to Europe is a massive personal defeat for Vladimir Putin," noting Gazprom’s role as what he termed "Putin’s personal company" and the significant financial losses it would face due to the suspension of gas transit. The ramifications are not just national for Russia but personal for Putin, who has relied on Gazprom as his financial lifeline.
The contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz, originally established long before the current conflict, allowed for the flow of gas to Europe, generating approximately $800 million annually for Ukraine, even during the full-scale invasion. The suspension of transit not only signifies Ukraine's strategic pivot but also leaves Gazprom facing potential losses of about $5 billion yearly, raising questions about the future viability of Russian gas exports.
On its final day, Gazprom's delivery decreased to 37.2 million cubic meters (mcm) from the 42.4 mcm supplied just before the cut-off. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced plans for a new operational model for Ukraine’s gas transmission system, indicating steps to adapt independently moving forward.
The European Commission has assured member states and citizens alike about their energy security. A commission representative stated, "The impact of the suspension of transit through Ukraine... is limited," highlighting the preparedness and diversification of the European energy portfolio. Over the past year, the EU has expanded capacity for liquid natural gas (LNG) imports and renewable energy sources, effectively reducing dependence on Russian gas supplies.
Despite these reassurances, concerns voiced by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico underscored the gravity of the situation. He hinted at potential domestic repercussions should Ukraine fail to renew the deal, such as cutting electricity exports to Ukraine. Slovakia, which has remained closely tied to Russia through energy deals, is likely to feel the impacts most acutely as it balances its energy needs amid increasing tensions.
Meanwhile, Hungary is poised to continue importing Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline, complicifying the energy equation within the region.
Security concerns were voiced by Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator, warning of possible Russian attacks on Ukraine's gas facilities following the suspension of the deal. CEO Dmytro Lyppa emphasized their commitment to securing the country’s gas infrastructure, stating, "We are taking all measures to protect our facilities." This reflects not just the logistical challenges posed by the end of transit but the persistent threat from Russia as the situation evolves.
Overall, the termination of gas transit through Ukraine sends ripple effects throughout Europe, testing the resilience of alliances and the efficacy of discussions around energy independence. With rising tensions and increasingly complicated energy strategies, the choices made today will shape the European energy map for years to come.