On the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both the military situation and diplomatic efforts remain complex and fraught with challenges. Despite some indications of reduced intensity of combat, Russia is actively regrouping its forces, aiming to concentrate on strategic areas such as Pokrovsk and Kursk. Military experts warn, though, the conflict is far from over and is likely to escalate again.
According to military analyst Pavel Lakiychuk, the Ukrainian defense holds strong, particularly around Pokrovsk, significantly slowing the enemy's advance. “Currently, we are observing the regrouping of Russian forces, which is not due to any loss of resources but rather because combat intensity has temporarily decreased in some areas. The enemy is maneuvering and preparing for new attacks,” he stated during an interview on February 23.
Reports indicate Russia is reallocting troops from the Pokrovsk direction to reinforce other fronts, such as near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. “Especially concerning is the significant Russian military presence being reported at Chasiv Yar to Toretsk, where the eighth army is concentrating,” Lakiychuk elaborated. He emphasized the strategic importance of Pokrovsk, noting it could dictate the next phases of warfare. “If the enemy pushes toward Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk will be behind them and pose a significant threat. Hence, it remains a key battlefield,” he added.
On the international front, recent diplomatic maneuvers are underway, hoping to establish some form of peace negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump is optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement between Ukraine and Russia within the week. Presidential spokesperson Caroline Leavitt conveyed Trump’s commitment to ending violence, emphasizing the administration's belief in Russia's willingness to negotiate peace.
Leavitt noted, “The President stated he wants the killings to stop and to save innocent lives.” Meanwhile, national security advisor Mike Waltz has been working round-the-clock to facilitate these discussions, building on earlier dialogues held on February 18th during talks between U.S. and Russian representatives.
Adding complexity to the peace process are mixed sentiments within Ukraine. Trump’s advisor Keith Kellogg has visited Kyiv for discussions with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces criticism for not securing favorable agreements with the U.S.
Activist Oleksandra Romantsova, from the Center for Civil Liberties, reflects on the human cost of the war as it continues to ravage the country. Romantsova, whose organization has been documenting war crimes since 2014, believes the scale of the atrocities is simply beyond comprehension. “There have been about 83,000 documented potential international crimes, with the scale growing significantly since the invasion,” she remarked. These realities paint a grim picture of the war's human cost, indicating more than 22% of Ukrainian territory remains under Russian occupation.
Romantsova also critiques Russia's continuous military engagement and manipulation of humanitarian conditions. “On occupied territories, there is no access for us. Our citizens face daily violence, and the aggressor has ample time to conceal its crimes,” she asserted. Echoing her sentiments, military experts stress Russian troops' preparations for new attacks, showcasing their focus on strategic targets.
Experts remain skeptical about Russia’s willingness for peace, with Romantsova stating, “There are no signs of Russia being ready for negotiations. The war rages on unabated.” She urged for international accountability for those committing these crimes, stressing the importance of documenting the actions to hold violators responsible.
The overarching theme of this third anniversary reflects the dire circumstances, as well as the relentless spirit of defenders on the ground. Ukrainian forces, encouragingly, hold onto significant territories, buoyed by international support amid agonizing human suffering.
While the U.S. and other nations engage diplomatically, the voices from within Ukraine call for meaningful actions to end the suffering and acknowledge the brutal reality of conflict as they push against Russia’s advances.
Given these multifaceted developments, the situation remains volatile and uncertain. Local and international efforts to secure peace are underway, yet the harsh realities of war persist, reminding all involved of the significant human cost at stake.