The National Bank of Ukraine has hinted at a potential increase in the minimum wage for 2026, suggesting it could rise from 8000 hryvnias to 8370 hryvnias. This projection comes from the bank's updated macroeconomic forecast, which is included in its "Inflation Report." According to the report, the average minimum wage is expected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 8950 hryvnias by 2027.
However, this optimistic forecast stands in stark contrast to the recent Budget Declaration approved by the Cabinet of Ministers in June 2024. This declaration proposes to maintain the minimum wage at 8000 hryvnias throughout 2025 to 2027, effectively halting any increases during this period. The government claims this approach will ensure that the wage level remains consistent with the significant hikes seen in 2024.
As part of this declaration, salaries for employees in the budgetary sector will be based on the official salary of the employee at the first tariff category of the Unified Tariff Grid, which will remain unchanged at the end of 2024. This decision has raised concerns among various stakeholders about the future of wage growth in Ukraine.
Education Minister Oksen Lisovyi has stated that any decision regarding salary increases for teachers will depend on the financial capabilities of the state budget. Currently, the government's strategy for additional funding for educational subventions requires a minimum allocation of 200 billion dollars. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has also emphasized that the minimum wage is not expected to change during the year 2025.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, People's Deputy Bohdan Kitsak has pointed out that an increase in the minimum wage is not on the table due to Ukraine's obligations to international partners, particularly the memorandum with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This scenario highlights the tension between domestic economic needs and international financial commitments.
Meanwhile, in Russia, the Federation of Independent Trade Unions (FNPR) is advocating for a significant increase in the minimum wage (MROT), proposing that it could double under a new calculation methodology. Historically, from 2019 to 2020, the minimum wage was linked to the subsistence minimum. However, since 2021, it has been based on the median salary in the country.
As of 2025, the minimum wage is set at 48% of the median salary, which amounts to 22,440 rubles per month. The Russian president has mandated that the minimum wage should increase at a rate exceeding inflation, with a target of reaching at least 35,000 rubles by 2030.
The FNPR's proposal aims to recalibrate the minimum wage by aligning it with the minimum consumer budget, which is a more comprehensive measure than the subsistence minimum. The minimum consumer budget was first introduced in Russia in 1992 but has not been fully integrated into the regulatory framework. It encompasses the cost of a balanced diet, durable goods, taxes, and services necessary for maintaining an active physical state and workforce reproduction.
According to FNPR estimates, the minimum consumer budget in 2024 exceeded 52,000 rubles, prompting the union to advocate for this amount to be set as the new minimum wage. The FNPR argues that this adjustment is crucial for ensuring that workers can meet their basic needs and maintain a decent standard of living.
Under Article 133 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, an employee who has worked the full monthly hours and met labor standards cannot be paid less than the minimum wage. This wage is determined by federal law and influences various social payments, including sick leave and maternity benefits. While the minimum wage is uniform across the country, individual regions in Russia can establish their own minimum wage levels, provided they do not fall below the federal standard.
The contrasting approaches to minimum wage policies in Ukraine and Russia reflect the broader economic challenges both countries face. In Ukraine, the government is navigating a tight fiscal landscape, balancing the need for wage growth against international obligations. In Russia, the push for a higher minimum wage comes amid calls for social equity and improved living standards.
As both nations grapple with these issues, the implications of minimum wage policies extend beyond mere numbers; they touch on the very fabric of economic stability and social welfare. The decisions made in the coming years will undoubtedly shape the livelihoods of millions of workers in both countries.
