As the qualifying matches for the 2026 FIFA World Cup are underway, national teams across the globe are gearing up for their chance to secure a spot in the prestigious tournament. The Ukrainian national team started on the back foot this year, missing the initial qualifying matches due to being involved in the playoffs for the UEFA Nations League. They faced a tough challenge against Belgium, ultimately losing the tie 3-4 over two matches. However, as March unfolded, the opponents for Ukraine in the World Cup qualifiers were confirmed, adding an extra layer of complexity to their campaign.
In a surprising turn of events, France, the 2022 World Cup runners-up, proved their prowess in the Nations League quarter-finals by edging out Croatia in a penalty shootout. This victory positioned France as Ukraine's main rival in Group B of the qualifiers. According to the analytical portal Football Meets Data, the chances of Ukraine qualifying directly for the World Cup stand at a daunting 17%. In stark contrast, the French team boasts an impressive 82% probability of taking the top spot in their group.
While ambitions might seem muted for Ukraine, there is a silver lining: the likelihood of finishing in second place—which offers a chance for playoff qualification—is rated at 67%. This prospect is critical, especially considering that France's strong showing in the Nations League has already secured them a place in the playoffs, regardless of how they perform in the group qualification.
The qualifying scenarios are shaping up against a backdrop of other teams in the group: Iceland sits with a minimal 1% chance of securing top placement while Azerbaijan struggles with a mere 0.2% likelihood. For Ukraine, whether they can challenge France for supremacy or rally to clinch a second-place finish may soon be tested—starting with their first match against France on September 5, 2025, followed by a face-off with Azerbaijan on September 9, 2025.
In another corner of South America, the Chile national team finds itself in dire circumstances as they prep for their critical clash against Ecuador, scheduled for March 26, 2025. This match, taking place at the Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos in Santiago, marks the 14th round of the qualifiers. Chile currently sits at the bottom of the qualifying table, reeling from a dismal performance that has seen them secure only two wins in 13 matches.
Head coach Ricardo Gareca took over the reins at the beginning of the previous year, but the change has yet to yield the results he hoped for. Recently, Chile managed a pair of home wins—against Peru and Venezuela—but the remaining matches resulted in frustrating draws, including three lifeless 0-0 ties. With just three rounds remaining, Chile's hopes for an intercontinental playoff are dwindling, and their upcoming encounters with Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay represent a daunting challenge.
Conversely, Ecuador is experiencing a resurgence under the leadership of newly appointed head coach Sebastian Beccacese. Positioned second in the qualifying group and pulling ahead of Brazil and Uruguay, Ecuador’s current form includes a string of three victories, with a sound triumph against Bolivia and a gritty away win against Colombia. While the team had a setback in its debut match under Beccacese against Brazil, they’ve rebounded strongly and are keen to maintain momentum heading into the match against Chile.
These two teams’ paths are worlds apart as they prepare for their confrontation. Chile's hopes are dimmed further by injuries to key players, including Alexis Sanchez and Erik Pulgar, which could hamper their performance on the field. Meanwhile, Ecuador looks set to capitalize on its stronger squad, aiming for a win that would all but lock in their World Cup berth for 2026.
As match day approaches, analysts are eager to see if Chile can mount a comeback in this make-or-break showdown or if Ecuador will reinforce its position as a formidable contender in South American football.
With global eyes focused on these pivotal matches, the narrative heading into the World Cup continues to unfold, as teams vie for a chance to etch their names in football history.