The UK government is preparing to officially join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), prompting debates about the economic benefits of the move, especially amid concerns over the country’s trade relations with the European Union. Rishi Sunak’s administration has positioned this membership as a key post-Brexit achievement, yet critics from the opposition describe the anticipated economic gains as minimal.
According to government predictions, the CPTPP is expected to yield only a 0.08 percent boost to the UK economy, and even this estimate has been called excessively optimistic. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has previously suggested the benefits of joining the CPTPP would be “very small.” He urged for stronger ties with the EU, stating it would yield greater economic dividends.
Dominic Grieve, co-president of European Movement UK, emphasized the necessity of approaching UK trade with practicality and realism. “Whatever the benefits of being part of the CPTPP, they can never come close to the benefits to the UK economy of being part of the single market,” he remarked. He conveyed frustration over the UK’s current economic stagnation, underscoring the importance of fostering closer relations with Europe, mentioning, “the latest figures showing our growth is flatlining... Being serious about boosting our economy means being serious about forging a closer relationship with the European Union.”
The CPTPP encompasses 11 countries across the Asia-Pacific region, including Canada, Japan, and Australia. Critics perceive this agreement as inadequate compared to the economic collaboration previously enjoyed within the EU's single market. A growing number of voices assert UK policymakers must reevaluate their strategies to address the enduring impacts of Brexit on trade.
Recent documents released alongside the Budget forecasts have indicated the impact of Brexit could slice UK trade by as much as 15 percent over the next decade. This figure was provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), highlighting the long-lasting effects of leaving the EU. The OBR noted, “weak growth in imports and exports over the medium term partly reflects the continuing impact of Brexit, which we expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy.”
Despite these forecasts, the UK government insists on pursuing a dual approach. A spokesperson for the Department for Business and Trade remarked, “The UK is pursuing a twin track approach to trade, implementing CPTPP, as well as pursuing free trade agreements with countries like India and the GCC, simultaneously resetting the relationship with our European friends.” This assertion highlights the government’s commitment to increasing trade prospects internationally, balancing the agreements’ potential with efforts to rebuild ties with Europe.
While the CPTPP remains seen as partial consolation following the setbacks in securing favorable terms with the United States, the potential repercussions of the shifting trade policies loom large. Failure to establish beneficial trade relations with Europe, which accounted for 43% of total UK trade prior to Brexit, remains troubling for the government. The stark realities of economic hardships prompted by the spiralling inflation and weak growth raise questions about the sustainability of the government’s strategy.
The Labour Party’s position on re-entering the customs union or single market remains one of its firm commitments. Starmer has highlighted the need for maintaining strong links with the EU, claiming it would have brought more economic benefits than the CPTPP agreement. This sentiment reflects widespread weariness about the ramifications of Brexit on ordinary citizens, emphasizing the call for pragmatic economic policies.
Looking forward, much remains uncertain about the UK’s trading future. The ability of the government to navigate complex negotiations on various fronts, whether with Asia-Pacific partners or European allies, will significantly influence economic stability and growth prospects. With each passing day, the stakes grow higher, prompting urgent calls for effective trade solutions as the UK navigates its post-Brexit reality.
What follows next is the urgency for all stakeholders to critically examine their course of action. The interplay between joining international agreements like the CPTPP and restoring relationships with the EU will shape the UK’s economic fabric significantly. The success or failure of these strategies may very well determine the country’s economic health for years to come.
