Five years after Brexit, recent polling data reveals significant shifts in public sentiment across the UK toward its relationship with the European Union. According to research conducted by BMG Research for The i Paper, there appears to be mounting support for notions of rejoining the EU, showcasing growing skepticism about the benefits of the UK’s departure from the bloc.
The poll, conducted on January 28-29, 2025, just days before the fifth anniversary of the UK leaving the EU on January 31, 2020, indicates 45% of respondents would prefer to rejoin the EU, compared to 37% who wish to remain out. Particularly notable is the finding where stripping out undecided voters results in overwhelming majorities favoring EU re-entry at 55%.
Commentators suggest this surge reflects broader economic apprehensions as the public contemplates rejoining being beneficial for the economy, the cost of living, and public services overall. Interestingly, the notion of rejoining might negatively impact immigration levels, showcasing the nuanced views held by voters.
Reflecting on these trends, Keir Starmer’s Labour government seeks to initiate what they term as a "reset" of relationships with Brussels. Starmer faces pressure not just from pro-EU factions but also from constituents skeptical about the benefits reaped from Brexit, with some critics arguing the government has not been bold enough. Scepticism remains high, especially around the European Convention on Human Rights, where support for quitting has grown from 26% at the last general election to 36%, against 45% who oppose abandoning it.
Recent analyses, such as those from Giuseppe Spatafora, indicate the groundwork laid by Brexit resulted primarily detrimental effects on trade—suggesting the UK’s attempts to establish new trade agreements have not borne expected fruits. "The biggest effects have been on trade, and they have not been positive for London," Spatafora noted. Integration disconnects create uncertainty about future trading relationships, making it challenging for UK businesses.
From the outset, the challenges of Brexit presented complex ramifications especially for areas like Northern Ireland, where the 2021 Northern Ireland Protocol has created rifts within local governance and fueled calls for independence from Scotland, which also voted largely to remain within the EU during the 2016 referendum.
Starmer's government is taking cautious steps to redefine the UK's role and presents as eager to engage with the EU. Set to meet with all 27 EU leaders for informal discussions, the focus seems turned toward defense partnerships, propelled by security concerns arising from the war in Ukraine.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice remarked on the apparent divide between various age demographics, noting, "The principal driver of what’s been a modest rise in support for being inside the EU has been those who didn’t vote in 2016," indicating younger citizens showed overwhelming preference to rejoin the EU. This trend of 'Bregret'—a blend regret surrounding Brexit—remains palpable, primarily among younger voters who were not eligible to vote during the referendum.
A key point for Starmer appears to be the public's interest in establishing a UK-EU youth mobility scheme, allowing people under 30 to travel and work within each region, which reflects overall support from 57% of voters. This scheme, widely championed by the EU yet currently dismissed by the UK government, poses yet another point of contention between what the public desires and what the government is willing to negotiate.
While supporters of the Conservative Party like Nigel Farage continue to oppose any major changes to Brexit policies, they may find less traction as public sentiment appears eager for progressive changes. Analysts argue Starmer could manage to navigate these turbulent waters, particularly with Labour’s strong Commons majority, aiding his ability to push for more ambitious proposals actively.
What remains prevalent is the pressing need for decisive and tangible progress moving forward. The upcoming discussions between Starmer and EU leaders could set the stage for opportunities to solidify economic ties and bolster shared security interests, reducing trade friction, but it's contingent on the willingness of the UK government to embrace more pro-European policies. Continuing slow engagement may likely lead to voter discontent as both sides await clarity on what they seek to achieve.
Looking forward, Starmer must keep the pulse of public sentiment at the forefront. The data indicates time is running out—a strong desire exists for substantial re-engagement with the EU; failure to advance could result decisively influencing the political dynamics heading toward future elections, where issues surrounding Brexit are poised to resurface prominently.