The UK population is set to soar to 72.5 million by 2032, marking almost five million more individuals than were counted in mid-2022. This growth, projected by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), hinges predominantly on net migration as the driving force with natural population changes expected to level off at nearly zero.
According to the ONS, the population is predicted to climb from 67.6 million to 72.5 million over the decade—an increase of roughly 7.3%. James Robards, the head of population and household projections at the ONS, emphasized, “The UK population is projected to grow by almost five million over the next decade. The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change—the difference between births and deaths—projected to be around zero.”
The figures suggest the UK will see about 6.8 million births and 6.8 million deaths during this period, balancing out due to the rising mortality rates as the baby boomer generation ages. Projections estimate average net migration to reach 340,000 annually starting from mid-2028—slightly lower than current figures but still substantial. This net migration is estimated to total 4.9 million over the ten years, underscoring the reliance on incoming individuals to offset demographic changes.
England is forecast to experience the most significant population growth, nearly 7.8%, compared to 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland, and 2.1% for Northern Ireland. The ONS has indicated this disparity reflects the varying impacts of migration patterns across the regions.
The ageing population is another pressing concern, with projections indicating the number of individuals aged over 85 will nearly double by 2047, reaching 3.3 million. Robards noted, “These projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population,” attributing it to both the longevity of the baby boomer cohort and improvements across general life expectancy metrics.
Critically, the ONS report underlines the inherently uncertain nature of these demographic estimates, as they are based on current and historical trends: “These projections are based on current and past trends, and aren’t forecasts about what may or may not happen in the future.” This caution aligns with the somewhat volatile nature of migration patterns historically.
The discussion around net migration has sparked political debate, with shadow home secretary Chris Philp condemning the figures as “shocking and unacceptable,” calling for decisive action from the government to impose stricter regulations on immigration. He insisted, “It can and must be stopped from materialising,” advocating for “a hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year” to control the influx.
The ramifications of this projected growth extend well beyond mere numbers; they pose pressing questions for public services, planning, and fiscal policy. The ONS suggested these figures could help shape government policies and funding strategies as they account for burgeoning needs across key sectors like health, education, and pension provisions.
Looking beyond the immediate decade, projections for the UK’s population suggest total growth of 8.9 million—a leap of 13.2%—up until 2047. These figures resonate especially within the wider discourse surrounding public spending and strategy as economic needs adjust to accommodate larger populations.
Overall, the projections from the ONS paint a complex picture of demographic evolution influenced by migration trends, birth rates, and ageing populations. With the estimated changes looming large, stakeholders await the government’s responsive measures to manage the anticipated demographic shifts effectively.