Britain is facing a new and unsettling reality, with leading security experts warning that the United Kingdom may already be embroiled in a form of war with Russia—albeit not the kind fought with tanks and missiles. Instead, it’s a shadowy conflict marked by cyberattacks, sabotage, and psychological warfare, sending chills through government corridors and raising urgent questions about national preparedness.
On September 30, 2025, Eliza Manningham-Buller, the former head of MI5, delivered a stark assessment that echoed across the British security establishment. Speaking in an interview, Manningham-Buller suggested that those who believe the UK is already at war with Russia "may be right." Referring to the mounting evidence of sabotage, intelligence collection, cyber-attacks, and physical attacks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she remarked, "Since the invasion of Ukraine, and the various things I read that the Russians have been doing here, sabotage, intelligence collection, attacking people, and so on. Fiona Hill may be right in saying we're already at war with Russia. It's a different sort of war, but the hostility, the cyber-attacks, the physical attacks, the intelligence work is extensive."
Her comments build on a June 2025 statement from Dr Fiona Hill, a former White House adviser and Russia expert, who told The Guardian that Moscow is at war with the West, citing a catalogue of poisonings, assassinations, sabotage operations, cyber attacks, and influence operations. Hill’s assessment was blunt: "Russia is at war with us." Manningham-Buller, appearing on a podcast with Lord Speaker John McFall, agreed with this view, noting the evolution of Russian activities since the Ukraine conflict began. "It’s not a conventional war, but the level of hostility, cyber intrusions, physical attacks, and intelligence activity is extensive," she stated, according to Rokna and The Guardian.
The evidence for these claims is mounting. In 2025 alone, six Bulgarian nationals living in Britain were sentenced for their roles in a spy network conducting hostile surveillance across Europe. Five others were convicted for an arson attack on a warehouse supplying Ukraine—an operation British authorities say was ordered by Moscow. The UK’s Cabinet Office minister at the time, Pat McFadden, warned that Russia had intensified its cyber operations against the UK, targeting numerous British firms. Although tracing the origins of such attacks can be a painstaking process, many are believed to have stemmed from Russia.
But the UK is not the only target. NATO partners in Eastern Europe have faced similar provocations. Poland, Denmark, and Estonia have all reported incursions by Russian aircraft and drones. The most recent incident occurred in Poland, where 19 unarmed Russian drones crossed into its airspace during a wave of Kremlin strikes on Ukraine. The immediate NATO reaction heightened fears that the conflict could escalate—a worry that has only intensified as Russia steps up its assaults and peace negotiations remain stalled.
Professor Natasha Lindstaedt from the University of Essex, speaking exclusively to The Mirror, described Russia’s approach as "testing the water" with hybrid war tactics. "The recent drone activity over Denmark, Estonia, Poland are examples of where Russia is creating huge headaches, psychological uncertainty, where the goal is to perforate, unnerve, disrupt and disorient the enemy. This is referred to as sharp power, and is something that Russia wields with expert precision," Lindstaedt explained. She added, "As Russia is unable to win a conventional war with Ukraine or with the West more generally, it has to engage in hybrid tactics and we will see more examples of Russia testing the water, and the boundaries of what is acceptable."
The underlying motive, according to Lindstaedt, is to send a message to the UK and other NATO countries: stay out of the conflict in Ukraine or face serious repercussions, including disruption, economic pain, and uncertainty. She warned, "The UK and other nations must be better equipped to counter cyber threats and drones; our dependence on multi-million dollar equipment won't suffice."
For Manningham-Buller, this new era of conflict marks a dramatic shift from her tenure as MI5 chief between 2002 and 2007. Back then, there was hope that Vladimir Putin’s Russia might avoid a return to Soviet-style confrontation and move toward partnership with the West. In 2005, she even met Putin in London after a G8 summit in Scotland. Reflecting on that meeting, Manningham-Buller recalled, "I wouldn’t quite call him that. I didn’t expect that within a year he would authorize a murder on the streets of London [Alexander Litvinenko], but I did find him rather unpleasant." The 2006 poisoning of Litvinenko, a former FSB officer, with radioactive polonium in London, was later determined by a public inquiry to have been carried out by Russian operatives acting on Putin’s orders.
The escalation of Russian hybrid tactics has not gone unnoticed by Britain’s allies. According to The Mirror, Poland, Denmark, and Estonia have all suffered from Russian drone incursions and cyber provocations. The recent wave of strikes in Poland, in particular, triggered an immediate response from NATO, underscoring the alliance’s growing anxiety about the risk of escalation. As Professor Lindstaedt put it, "Russia also wants to send a message to the UK and other NATO countries to stay out of the conflict and Ukraine or possibly face repercussions, of which could cause disruption, economic pain (if an airport has to close down), and uncertainty."
Beyond the immediate threats, Manningham-Buller has also voiced concerns about the longer-term erosion of Western influence. She criticized sharp cuts to UK and US aid spending, warning that such reductions create openings for China to expand its influence in developing nations. Drawing on her experience as director and later chair of the Wellcome Trust, she recalled the impact of US-funded HIV treatment programs in Africa. "You could visit a very basic hospital where patients were lying on pallets, but the Aids wing funded by George W. Bush was on an entirely different scale," she said. "For the Americans to stop all that, and for us to slash our own aid, leaves the field open for your friendly Chinese diplomat."
In Manningham-Buller’s view, soft power—whether through the BBC World Service, overseas aid, or mine-clearing—is as vital to Britain’s global influence as its military prowess. "If we step back, they can step in, because they have a strong economic foundation. Soft power... is vital to our global influence, alongside its humanitarian importance," she argued.
The warnings from security experts and former officials come as the UK and its NATO allies grapple with a rapidly changing security landscape. The lines between war and peace have blurred, with hostile activities now occurring in the gray zone of cyber space, psychological operations, and covert sabotage. As the UK faces up to this new reality, the challenge will be to adapt its defenses, strengthen its alliances, and safeguard its global influence while navigating the treacherous waters of modern hybrid warfare.
As the shadow conflict with Russia intensifies, the need for vigilance, resilience, and strategic foresight has never been more pressing for Britain and its allies.
