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02 November 2024

UK Budget Triggers Market Turmoil And Recovery

Prime Minister Starmer promises reform after initial backlash from finance markets following budget announcement

Following the recent UK budget announcement, concerns over its impact on financial markets have started to ease. Initially, the budget, introduced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, sent ripples through financial circles, seen as both ambitious and risky. Over the past week, the UK has witnessed notable fluctuations as investors grappled with the implications of increased taxes and heightened borrowing. Market participants were understandably restless, prompting both the pound and government bonds to face downward pressure.

When the budget was revealed, it included significant tax hikes, totaling around £40 billion ($52 billion), marking the most sizable increase seen under Labour governance in the past 14 years. The worry was palpable among investors, initially leading to what was described as a "risk-averse" approach, with many opting to sell off government bonds and the pound amid uncertainty. The combination of increased taxation and spending raised eyebrows, as many questioned the sustainability of this fiscal strategy.

But by Friday, signs of stabilization began to show. The UK's 10-year bond yield, which had spiked following the budget's announcement, steadied at 4.45%, indicating some recovery of confidence. Simultaneously, the pound gained 0.4% to reach $1.2951, reflecting increased trust from market participants. This recovery was particularly notable considering the sharp reactions witnessed after previous fiscal announcements, most famously during Liz Truss' controversial mini-budget.

Reeves' budget included substantial hikes to the National Insurance Contributions (NIC), particularly for businesses. This change, seen as one of the cornerstones of the budget, raised employer contributions by 1.2 percentage points. Critics, including various business leaders, warned this increased burden could lead to potential layoffs or diminished wage growth as companies try to navigate the financial waters.

Despite the government's efforts to present the budget as conducive to future growth, many analysts, including those at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), expressed skepticism over the long-term impact, predicting only minimal growth benefits and potential inflationary pressures. Concerns about inflation now overshadow the forecast for interest rate adjustments by the Bank of England, which is expected to cut its rate by 0.25 percentage points next week but might adopt a more cautious stance moving forward.

When asked about the resilience of the Labour government's plans, Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out, “Though the market’s allergic reaction is unwelcome for the new Labour government, the response has been much more muted than after the Conservative’s mini-Budget of September 2022.” This sentiment encapsulates the cautious optimism as the UK navigates this new fiscal reality.

Now, as the UK forges ahead, scrutiny will be squarely on how the Labour government plans to achieve its ambitious economic restoration goals. Investors and analysts alike are watching closely to see if the commitments made will translate to real-world improvements for the economy or merely provide temporary respite amid tightening fiscal conditions.

The Labour government, having promised change amid the remnants of years marked by Conservative-led controversy, faces the enormous challenge of balancing tax increases with nurturing economic growth. The budget proposed by Reeves not only sets forth new taxation but aims to address the pressing reality of public service underfunding, something the nation has grappled with for many years.

Looking forward, the government will be under pressure to demonstrate how these tax policies can stimulate not just growth but also public confidence, particularly as they prepare for the economic trials of the coming year. The success of these endeavours will not only be reflected through financial markets but through every household and business impacted by fiscal policies.

While the immediate fallout from the budget seems to be subsiding, the long-term consequences will undoubtedly shape the economic conversation for months, if not years, to come. It remains to be seen whether Starmer and Reeves can transform this precarious moment of adjustment and uncertainty—a test of financial acumen and political promise.

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