On October 19, 2025, Turkish Cypriots delivered a resounding message at the ballot box, electing Tufan Erhurman as president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) in a landslide victory that has reignited hopes for peace on the divided Mediterranean island. Erhurman, a former prime minister and staunch supporter of reunification, secured 62.76% of the vote, leaving incumbent Ersin Tatar—widely seen as Ankara’s preferred candidate—trailing with just 35.81%, according to unofficial figures broadcast on BRT TV and cited by the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse.
The turnout, at nearly 65% of the TRNC’s 218,000 registered voters, was higher than the first round of the 2020 election but lower than its second round, as reported by local election officials. Erhurman’s margin was decisive: he garnered almost 20,000 more votes than Tatar did in 2020 and over 37,000 more than Tatar managed this time around. The remaining votes were scattered among five minor candidates, none of whom made a significant impact.
At a jubilant rally following his victory, Erhurman declared, “The Turkish Cypriot people have won together.” He stressed that the win was for all Turkish Cypriots, regardless of party affiliation, and underscored his commitment to inclusivity. “I will exercise my responsibilities, notably in terms of foreign policy, in consultation with the Republic of Turkey,” Erhurman added, seeking to reassure both Ankara and his own constituents that he would not act unilaterally—a point echoed in coverage by Agence France-Presse.
Erhurman’s campaign was built on a promise to return to the negotiating table for a two-zone federation with the Greek Cypriot south, a sharp departure from the two-state solution favored by both Tatar and Turkey since peace talks collapsed in Switzerland in 2017. According to the Associated Press, Erhurman had harshly criticized Tatar’s reluctance to engage in formal talks, arguing that this stance had “alienated Turkish Cypriots from the European Union and pushed them further on the international periphery.”
The island’s division traces back to 1974, when Turkey invaded Cyprus following a coup in Nicosia backed by Greece’s military junta. This intervention led to the creation of the TRNC in 1983, a state recognized only by Turkey. Today, the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus—an EU member—controls the island’s majority Greek Cypriot south, while Turkey maintains more than 35,000 troops in the north. Many Turkish Cypriots hold EU-recognized Cyprus passports but live under the breakaway administration.
Erhurman’s victory has injected new energy into the long-stalled peace process, which has been in a deep freeze for eight years. Greek Cypriot president Nikos Christodoulides was quick to congratulate Erhurman, expressing his readiness to resume talks. “I look forward to meeting Erhurman as soon as possible,” Christodoulides said in a statement, reiterating his government’s openness to negotiations, as reported by the Associated Press.
Yet, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while officially congratulating Erhurman and acknowledging that the result “reflected the will of our Turkish Cypriot brothers and sisters,” has maintained a hard line. In his address to the United Nations General Assembly last month, Erdogan reaffirmed his support for a two-state solution and vowed to continue defending “the sovereign rights and interests” of the TRNC. On Sunday, he echoed this sentiment, stating that Turkey would “continue to defend the rights and sovereign interests” of the breakaway territory, as reported by both Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press.
Not everyone in Turkey’s political establishment is ready to accept the shift in northern Cyprus. Devlet Bahceli, leader of the nationalist MHP and a key ally in Erdogan’s People’s Alliance, denounced Erhurman’s victory as “unacceptable.” Bahceli argued that the 64.8% turnout “cannot represent the Turkish Cypriots’ fate” and called for the TRNC parliament to urgently reject the election results, abandon federation talks, and instead vote to join the Republic of Turkey. “The TRNC parliament must urgently convene, reject the election results and federation talks, and decide to join the Republic of Turkey,” Bahceli insisted, as cited in local Turkish media.
This divergence between Ankara’s official acceptance and nationalist calls for annexation highlights the delicate balancing act Erhurman faces. The TRNC remains heavily dependent on Turkey for economic and political support, and Erhurman has repeatedly pledged to consult with Ankara on matters of foreign policy. He has also rejected suggestions that he would seek to abolish Turkey’s military intervention rights, a sticking point that helped derail previous peace efforts. Greek Cypriots view the continued Turkish military presence and intervention rights as a threat, while Turkish Cypriots argue they are essential for their protection.
Political equality for Turkish Cypriots is nonnegotiable, Erhurman insists. However, the two sides interpret this concept differently. Greek Cypriots object to demands for minority veto powers at the federal level, arguing that such provisions would be unfair and unworkable. These disagreements, along with issues of security and sovereignty, have repeatedly stymied progress at the negotiating table.
The stakes for a Cyprus peace deal are significant and extend beyond the island. A settlement could unlock the exploitation of sizable natural gas reserves off Cyprus’s southern coast, potentially powering Egypt and Europe and enhancing regional energy security. It could also pave the way for long-delayed infrastructure projects, such as an electricity cable connecting Greece and Cyprus—with the possibility of extending the link to Israel, which has expressed interest in joining the grid.
Even if the election result has revived hopes for a United Nations-backed push to restart talks, the challenges are immense. The collapse of the 2017 negotiations, primarily over Turkey’s insistence on keeping troops and intervention rights, remains a fresh memory. While the leaders of both sides met in July 2025 at the UN headquarters in New York for what UN chief Antonio Guterres described as “constructive” talks, there is no guarantee of a breakthrough.
Erhurman has warned that Turkish Cypriots should not bear the brunt of another failed round of talks, hinting that the international community might engage directly with the TRNC through trade or air links if negotiations collapse again. Greek Cypriots, however, argue that such a fallback would reduce incentives for compromise and undermine the search for a fair and lasting solution.
As the dust settles on this historic election, the future of Cyprus remains uncertain but newly energized. The coming months will test Erhurman’s ability to navigate the competing pressures of his electorate, Ankara, and the international community. For now, Turkish Cypriots have made their choice clear: they want another chance at peace—and the world is watching to see if this time, the opportunity will be seized.
