Trzaskowski, Nawrocki, And Mentzen Lead Polish Election Polls

As Poland gears up for its presidential elections in 2025, recent polling data indicates that three candidates are emerging as frontrunners for a spot in the second round: Rafał Trzaskowski, Karol Nawrocki, and Sławomir Mentzen. According to a new survey conducted by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), a significant majority of Poles believe these candidates have the best chance of advancing beyond the first round.

The poll reveals that 72% of respondents see Trzaskowski, the candidate from the Civic Coalition (KO), as likely to make it to the second round. In comparison, 50% support Nawrocki, who is backed by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), while 42% favor Mentzen, representing the Confederation. Other candidates, including Szymon Hołownia from Poland 2050, have much lower expectations, with only 6% believing he will advance. Meanwhile, candidates such as Magdalena Biejat from the Left and Grzegorz Braun received 2% support each, and only 1% of respondents mentioned Adrian Zandberg and Marek Jakubiak as potential contenders.

Interestingly, none of the surveyed individuals indicated Krzysztof Stanowski as a candidate for the second round, and 1% opted for "other candidates." A notable 9% of those surveyed were undecided or unable to provide an answer.

If the election were held today, a hypothetical match-up between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki would see Trzaskowski leading with 46% of the vote compared to Nawrocki's 36%. However, 8% of respondents indicated they would cast an invalid vote, and 7% stated they would not participate at all. According to CBOS, if those contesting the election and undecided voters did not show up, Trzaskowski would secure 56% of the votes, while Nawrocki would receive 44%.

The CBOS survey was conducted between March 17 and March 20, 2025, utilizing telephone and online interviews with a sample of 1,003 Polish residents. The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for May 18, 2025, with a potential second round on June 1, 2025.

As the election approaches, the list of registered candidates continues to grow. The State Electoral Commission (PKW) has officially registered candidates including Grzegorz Braun, Szymon Hołownia, Sławomir Mentzen, Karol Nawrocki, Rafał Trzaskowski, Adrian Zandberg, and Artur Bartoszewicz. Additionally, several election committees have been established for candidates such as Magdalena Biejat and Krzysztof Stanowski.

Importantly, two key deadlines loom on the horizon. By March 24, 2025, candidates must notify the PKW of their election committee's formation. Furthermore, April 4, 2025, at 4:00 PM marks the deadline for candidate registration, which requires a minimum of 100,000 signatures to proceed.

In a related development, Karol Nawrocki has publicly challenged Rafał Trzaskowski to a debate focused on Polish security. During his visit to Końskie in the Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship, Nawrocki emphasized that any discussion should take place on neutral ground and in a spirit of fair play. This call for a debate was echoed by Paweł Szefernaker, Nawrocki's campaign chief, who reached out to Wioletta Paprocka, Trzaskowski's campaign manager, to establish the conditions for the debate.

Responding positively, Paprocka confirmed Trzaskowski's willingness to engage in the discussion. "Let’s agree on the details and debate. I understand that some want to be in the second round, but what matters most is the voters’ voice. See you on the campaign trail," she stated.

A recent poll conducted by SW Research for Onet indicated that 65.5% of respondents support the idea of a debate between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, while only 15.2% oppose it. Among those surveyed, 48% believe Trzaskowski would win a potential debate, compared to 27.3% who think Nawrocki would come out on top. The survey took place between March 25 and March 26, 2025, and included 810 adult participants.

In the midst of these political maneuvers, Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the New Hope party and a candidate for the Confederation, made headlines with his controversial remarks during an interview on March 26, 2025, with Kanał Zero. He expressed his strong opposition to the legality of abortion, stating, "We must not kill innocent children, even if that child is associated with some unpleasantness... we do not have the right to kill another human being just because that person causes us sadness." Trzaskowski sharply criticized Mentzen's comments, particularly his characterization of rape as an "unpleasantness," stating, "A knife opens in my pocket when I hear such statements."

Trzaskowski also took the opportunity to highlight Nawrocki's silence regarding Mentzen's views, suggesting that the lack of response could indicate a troubling alignment between the two candidates. "I find no special pleasure in discussing my opponents. However, it is important to listen to those who are vying for the highest offices in the country and to engage with young people about their programs," he remarked.

As the political landscape evolves leading up to the elections, the candidates' positions on key issues such as security and reproductive rights will likely play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion and voter turnout. The upcoming debates and continued campaigning will be crucial for all candidates as they strive to connect with voters and solidify their standings ahead of the critical election dates.