As Poland gears up for its 2025 presidential elections, the latest IBRiS poll conducted for Polskie Radio 24 reveals a competitive race between the leading candidates. If the elections were held this Sunday, April 27, 2025, Rafał Trzaskowski, representing the Civic Coalition, would secure 33.2% of the votes, while Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), would garner 25.6% support.
In this hypothetical scenario, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki would advance to a second round of voting set to take place on June 1, 2025. The poll indicates that Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederation party would come in third with 11.5% of the votes, followed by Szymon Hołownia from the Third Way at 6.1%, and Magdalena Biejat from the New Left at 5.1%.
The IBRiS survey, which was conducted between April 25 and 26, 2025, involved a representative nationwide sample of 1,070 respondents. Notably, the poll reflects a slight increase in support for Trzaskowski compared to previous surveys, where he registered 30.8% in a poll conducted by Polsat News on April 16-17, 2025.
In terms of voter turnout, 54.3% of respondents indicated they would participate in the elections, with 38.8% stating they would "definitely vote" and 15.5% saying they would "probably vote." On the other hand, 43.4% of those surveyed expressed that they would not go to the polls, with 28.1% saying they would "definitely not" participate.
The upcoming presidential debate organized by Super Express on April 28, 2025, is expected to play a significant role in shaping voter opinions. All thirteen candidates, including Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, are set to participate in a format that allows direct interaction among them.
President Andrzej Duda's recent endorsement of Karol Nawrocki at a campaign event in Łódź on April 27, 2025, adds another layer of complexity to the race. Duda's support is seen as a strategic move to bolster Nawrocki's chances in the first round, as he mobilizes voters to back the PiS candidate. Political analyst Prof. Wojciech Peszyński noted that Duda's involvement was likely planned to enhance Nawrocki's position and that his rising popularity could potentially challenge Trzaskowski's lead.
Peszyński commented, "Nawrocki's campaign team is optimistic about leveraging Duda's influence to secure a first-place finish in the initial round of voting. If Nawrocki surpasses Trzaskowski, it would significantly complicate the latter's path to victory in the second round." This assertion underscores the high stakes of the election, where every endorsement and poll point can sway the outcome.
Despite Nawrocki's recent gains, the dynamics of the race remain fluid. A poll conducted by Opinia24 for Faktów TVN just days before Duda's endorsement showed Trzaskowski at 32% and Nawrocki at 26%, indicating that while Nawrocki is gaining ground, Trzaskowski still holds a notable lead.
Looking at the broader context, the election is not only a contest between candidates but also a reflection of the political landscape in Poland. With the presidential elections set for May 18, 2025, and the potential for a second round on June 1, the candidates are under pressure to solidify their bases and appeal to undecided voters.
In the current political climate, the election represents a critical juncture for Poland, where issues such as economic stability, national security, and social policies are at the forefront of voters' minds. The candidates' ability to address these concerns effectively could determine their success on election day.
As the election date approaches, all eyes will be on the candidates' performances in the debate and their strategies to engage voters. With the stakes higher than ever, the race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in recent Polish history.
In summary, as the presidential election draws near, the competition between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki intensifies, with both candidates vying for the support of an electorate eager for change or continuity. The upcoming debate and the political maneuvers of the candidates will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in influencing the final outcome of this crucial election.
