The upcoming presidential elections in Poland are heating up as candidates approach the final stretch. Recent polling data reveals significant dynamics in voter preferences, particularly following the latest debate held on April 28, 2025.
According to a poll conducted by SW Research for Onet, the frontrunner, Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Coalition, has been identified as the biggest loser of the recent debate, with 15.6% of respondents citing him as the least effective candidate. This is a surprising turn of events for a candidate who has consistently led in the polls.
Following Trzaskowski in the debate loss rankings was Grzegorz Braun, who received 13.7% of the votes for biggest loser, while Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederation garnered 9.6%. Other candidates, including Maciej Maciak (7.7%), Karol Nawrocki (6.5%), and Szymon Hołownia (5%), also received notable mentions.
Despite the debate's impact, a significant 60% of respondents indicated that the debates do not influence their voting decisions. This sentiment raises questions about the effectiveness of such public forums in swaying voter opinions.
The first round of presidential elections is scheduled for May 18, 2025, with polling stations open from 7:00 AM to 9:00 PM. If no candidate secures over 50% of the votes, a runoff will be held on June 1, 2025.
Polling data indicates that Trzaskowski leads with 31.6% support, albeit a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous week. His main competitor, Karol Nawrocki, has 24.7%, which reflects a more significant drop of 2.9% compared to earlier polls. This trend suggests that while Trzaskowski maintains a lead, Nawrocki's support is dwindling.
Sławomir Mentzen has seen a rise in popularity, now supported by 12.8% of those polled, marking an increase of 1.5%. Following him is Szymon Hołownia, who has gained 0.9% to reach 8%. Other candidates like Magdalena Biejat (5.6%), Adrian Zandberg (4.3%), Krzysztof Stanowski (2.5%), Grzegorz Braun (2%), and Marek Jakubiak (1.5%) round out the field.
As the elections draw near, candidates are intensifying their efforts to convince undecided voters. Notably, 6% of respondents remain unsure about their choices, indicating a potential area for candidates to focus their campaigns.
In a hypothetical second round scenario, Trzaskowski would emerge victorious with 53.3% of the vote compared to Nawrocki's 39.5%. This represents an increase of 2.8% for Trzaskowski, while Nawrocki's support has decreased by 0.7%.
The debate format introduced by 'Super Express' has been positively received, with 56.8% of respondents favoring the one-on-one style of questioning. However, 20.6% did not watch the debate, and 9.6% had no opinion on it.
As the political landscape shifts, candidates are faced with the challenge of not only appealing to their base but also engaging those who are undecided. With the elections just weeks away, every moment counts in this race for the presidency.
In summary, the latest polling indicates a competitive race ahead, with Trzaskowski still holding a lead but facing challenges from Nawrocki and Mentzen. The upcoming weeks will be critical as candidates make their final appeals to voters.
