Trzaskowski Leads In Polls Ahead Of Presidential Elections

As Poland approaches its presidential elections scheduled for May 18, 2025, recent polling indicates a competitive race among the leading candidates. According to an Ipsos poll conducted for "19.30" and TVP Info, 28% of Poles favor Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Coalition (KO), while 22% support Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS). Sławomir Mentzen, representing the Confederation, is in third place with 15% support.

The Ipsos poll, taken between April 14 and April 16, 2025, surveyed a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles using a mixed-mode methodology (CATI and CAWI). In a hypothetical second round of voting, Trzaskowski would garner 50% of the votes compared to Nawrocki's 43%, with 7% of respondents undecided.

Another poll by the CBOS, conducted from April 7 to April 9, 2025, revealed that if Trzaskowski faced Nawrocki in the second round, he would receive 52% of the vote, while Nawrocki would secure 44%. Notably, 4% of respondents were unsure whom they would vote for in this scenario.

Trzaskowski's support appears robust among his first-round voters, with nearly 100% indicating they would continue to support him in a second round. Additionally, 71% of voters for Adrian Zandberg of the Left and 68% of Szymon Hołownia's supporters would also back Trzaskowski. Conversely, Nawrocki could count on 96% of his first-round voters, alongside 60% of Mentzen's electorate and 11% of Zandberg's voters.

The Pollster Research Institute indicated a slight decrease for Trzaskowski, showing 34% support compared to Nawrocki's 24% in their latest survey. Mentzen's support has dipped to 16%, a decline of 3 percentage points from previous polling.

In the context of these polling trends, the latest survey from the National Research Group indicated that Trzaskowski's support is at 35.53%, down 3.2 percentage points, while Nawrocki stands at 29.56%, a decrease of 1 percentage point. Mentzen follows with 20.43%, also down by 1 percentage point.

As the election date approaches, the competition remains fierce among the candidates. The State Electoral Commission has approved thirteen candidates, including notable figures such as Artur Bartoszewicz, Magdalena Biejat, Grzegorz Braun, and Krzysztof Stanowski, among others.

With debates and public discussions ongoing, the political landscape is shifting, and voters are keenly observing the candidates' positions on key issues, including economic policy, social programs, and foreign relations.

Trzaskowski, the current Mayor of Warsaw, has outlined a progressive platform advocating for liberalizing abortion laws, strengthening ties with Germany and France, and supporting Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia. His campaign emphasizes continued European integration and the potential adoption of the euro in Poland.

In contrast, Nawrocki, a historian and social activist, promotes a conservative agenda focused on bolstering national defense, reducing VAT, and maintaining the Polish złoty as the national currency. His campaign also emphasizes traditional values and a strong stance against illegal immigration.

As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the dynamics of the race suggest that the outcome may hinge on the candidates' ability to mobilize their bases and appeal to undecided voters. With the first round of voting just weeks away, both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki are ramping up their campaigns to secure a place in the crucial second round scheduled for June 1, 2025.

Ultimately, the Polish presidential election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the country's future, reflecting broader tensions and divisions within Polish society. As candidates articulate their visions for Poland, the electorate is poised to make a significant choice that could redefine the nation's political landscape for years to come.