Many residents of Seoul are feeling uneasy about the return of Donald Trump to the White House and what it might mean for U.S.-South Korea relations. With his previous administration often seen as unreliable, there’s growing concern among South Koreans about the need for their country to strengthen its own defense capabilities, possibly including the development of nuclear weapons.
Trump's recent electoral victory has once again thrust national security to the forefront of discussions within South Korea. His transactional approach during his previous term raised eyebrows, and many are now questioning whether South Korea should pursue its own nuclear deterrent. Han Dong-hoon, the chairman of the ruling People Power Party, weighed in at a recent seminar meant to assess the future of nuclear policy. He suggested there could be benefits to Trump's return, commenting, "Acquiring nuclear potential — having the right to enrich and reprocess uranium — is not nuclear arms possession per se, but we would be capable of moving on to the stage of possessing such weapons at any moment if North Korea escalates its nuclear threats."
The current tensions between North and South Korea are palpable, with fears running high over the North's military ambitions. Han’s statement highlights the precarious balance South Korea must navigate, especially as it assesses its defense options amid shifting global dynamics. Any aggressive actions from North Korea could lead to drastic shifts in diplomatic strategies.
Retired General Han Ki-ho added another layer to the debate, claiming nuclear armament might be necessary for the survival of South Korea. He straightforwardly stated, "For South Korea's survival, nuclear armament may be the only path left to us." Yet, the prospect of developing nuclear weapons is met with significant hurdles, not least of which is the potential backlash from the international community and the domestic opposition such a move would likely provoke.
Experts caution, though, about the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under the new Trump administration. The commitment to allied nations like South Korea is uncertain and may shift due to various factors. Mason Richey, a political analyst at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, shared his insights, noting, "Rhetorically, nuclear weapons are on the table. This will be significantly influenced by how the Trump administration approaches its alliance with South Korea and manages relations with North Korea." The potential for the Trump administration to pursue agreements with North Korea is particularly concerning for Seoul, especially if it results in North Korea being recognized as a nuclear power without offering Seoul any additional security guarantees.
Recent surveys reveal the sentiment of the South Korean populace leaning toward nuclear independence, with around 70% supporting the idea of developing and deploying their own nuclear weapons. This growing interest indicates serious unrest among citizens, who feel their national security may not be adequately protected under the longstanding alliance with the U.S.
Despite these significant discussions, Richey also pointed out the realities of nuclear weapon development. Establishing such capabilities is far from simple and would require immense financial resources, which, with the left-leaning Democratic Party currently holding sway in the South Korean Parliament, is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Allocations for such extensive military funding would likely face significant resistance from lawmakers, as well as concerns from civilians living near potential nuclear sites.
South Korea does possess civilian nuclear technology but is restricted by agreements with the United States, hindering its capacity to acquire fissile materials necessary for weaponization. Some observers speculate, though, if the Trump administration might be inclined to adjust these treaty commitments, making it easier for South Korea to develop the capabilities it wants. Economic and technical obstacles aside, the Trump administration's cabinet appointments paint a picture of hawkish policies toward North Korea and China. Appointees like Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State indicate Trump may continue to take a hard line, which might provide Seoul with some reassurance.
Lim Eun-jung, another political analyst, argued against the necessity of South Korea's independent nuclear deterrent, emphasizing the likelihood of continued firm U.S. support under Trump's new administration. According to her, strong figures on North Korean issues within the cabinet suggest U.S.-South Korea defense relations might remain steadfast, rendering an independent arsenal less pressing.
Nonetheless, as these debates evolve, the South Korean government remains wary. There’s palpable concern over the potential for the U.S. to bypass South Korean interests, especially if Trump seeks direct communications with Pyongyang independent of Seoul. Lim noted, "The South Korean government really does not want to be bypassed by the US, and for Trump to directly communicate with North Korea on issues affecting our national security.”
Looking to the future, the prospect of South Korea taking strides toward becoming a nuclear nation is tied closely to the U.S. administration’s actions and policies. Analysts believe friction may develop between Seoul and Washington, linked to Trump’s handling of trade, security, and diplomatic expectations over subservience and independence. If South Korea feels neglected or disrespected, it may lead to significant changes toward its current non-nuclear stance.
Trump's return to the White House has cast shadows over the security dynamics of East Asia, intensifying the debate over nuclear weapons acquisition. While historical alliances and diplomatic negotiations have primarily steered these discussions, the shifting political scene requires South Korea to reassess its strategies and capabilities amid rising threats. The world watches closely as South Korea grapples with choices about its future, weighing national pride against global responsibility.
