With Donald Trump back at the helm after his recent presidential election victory, many are left speculating about the potential ramifications for climate change, both domestically and internationally. Environmental advocates, scientists, and diplomats are bracing for another tumultuous chapter, recalling the drastic measures Trump took during his first term. Indeed, experts warn of significant disruptions to progress made on climate initiatives over the past few years.
Climate experts have voiced their concerns following Trump's election win. The Green Party of Northern Ireland, for example, laid bare their apprehensions, stating the election signals “chaos and damage” similar to what was seen during Trump’s prior term. This sentiment echoes through various organizations. The Center for International Environmental Law stated unequivocally, Trump's victory harbors “profound impacts” on environmental protection and human rights.
Dan Lashof, Director of the World Resources Institute, explicitly stated, "There is no denying another Trump presidency will stall national efforts to tackle the climate crisis and protect the environment." Such concerns are partly validated by analyses indicating Trump's return could result in an added 4 billion tonnes of emissions by 2030, equivalent to what the European Union emits annually. This figure has left many wondering about the effectiveness of climate goals previously set out, including those established under the Paris Agreement.
Under the Paris Agreement, the United States is supposed to reduce emissions by 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030. Yet, under a second Trump administration, emissions would only take a modest dip of around 28%. The looming dread is palpable, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expressing fears about entering "a much darker and scarier time" for climate policy, noting the irreversible consequences of failing to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Beyond the U.S. commitments, global reactions are equally concerning. World leaders, particularly those from Europe, are rallying to reaffirm their commitment to climate action irrespective of U.S. policy changes. They are wary of Trump's previous threats to withdraw from the Paris Accord, which he enacted after his 2016 election. Such moves, they argue, could inspire other countries to lag on their commitments to climate goals.
Trump's posts on social media have also ramped up anxiety. His promise to withdraw from the Paris Agreement wasn't mere talk; it was enacted. Experts note this withdrawal sent shockwaves across the globe, and many foresee similar actions if he continues his presidency. Trump's inclination against global climate accords and clean energy could have lasting effects on the fight against climate change globally.
Meanwhile, international gatherings such as COP29, set to meet soon, will face tests of leadership and resilience. Many see this summit as pivotal, especially with mounting evidence of climate change speeding up—a recent report indicated 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record.
The ramifications for clean energy are similarly grim. Trump has firmly committed to expediting fossil fuel production as part of his energy policies. This includes easing regulations and permitting hurdles for new drilling, pipelines, and refineries. Notably, he aims to revive coal as part of his energy strategy, notwithstanding the industry faced significant declines due to the shift to cleaner energy sources during Biden's administration.
While big oil and gas companies have largely funded Trump's campaigns, analysts are weighing whether his rollback of Biden’s clean energy initiatives will actually far outweigh their short-term gains. The Inflation Reduction Act, which allocated substantial funds for clean energy development, could face severe cuts if Trump follows through on his campaign promises. His critique of such policies as “Green New Scam” signals intentions to dismantle substantial gains made previously.
But not all hope is lost. Some experts suggest the structure of U.S. politics and public sentiment might cushion the blows of federal policy changes. While Trump holds sway at the federal level, various states and local governments have enacted progressive climate policies independent of federal directives. For example, California's aspirations for 80% of all new vehicles sold to be electric by 2035 remain intact and could continue progressing regardless of Trump's energy policy shifts.
Yet, as the world's second-largest climate polluter after China, Trump’s new term inherently puts U.S. climate policy front and center within global conversations. If he pulls back American leadership from climate standards, it’s feared other nations might relax their commitments too. While the U.S. has previously aimed to halve its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, many experts express concern these targets could slip through the cracks as climate dialogues shift amid uncertainty.
Despite undeniable resistance from some quarters, international society anticipates strong leadership from non-U.S. allies to continue advancing climate change discussions. Facing the turbulent waters of governance, experts are strategizing on ways to stitch together progressive coalitions to press forward.
The imminent reality under Trump's leadership invites questions—will he maintain momentum for clean energy? Or will he revert to fossil fuel-focused policies? And how will the globe adapt to America’s shifting stance on climate issues? One thing is clear: the impacts of his policies will be felt across the oceans, likely affecting efforts abroad as well as at home.
While major decisions are yet to be seen, the echoing principle remains: hope alone isn't enough. Strong coalitions among nations committed to climate action, as emphasized by climate leaders, might be the lifeline we need to outrun impending crises as global temperatures climb.
