With Donald Trump back on the political scene after his election victory, U.S. foreign policy appears headed for significant changes, particularly with regards to relationships involving Turkey, the Middle East, and even China. After four years of unprecedented disruption under Trump's first term, the political analysts are now observing closely how he plans to navigate through current global tensions, including the challenging U.S.-Turkey relationship and the simmering conflicts across the Middle East.
One of the first international leaders to express optimism about Trump's return is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Historically, the U.S.-Turkey relationship has faced numerous hurdles, particularly following Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which led to the U.S. suspending Turkey's participation in the F-35 fighter jet program. Yet, Erdogan remains hopeful, believing Trump's second term could pave the way for mending ties. This is not just wishful thinking; Erdogan has already signaled his intention to leverage "phone diplomacy"—a strategy focused on direct communication—as he aims to address key issues impacting the bilateral relationship.
His optimism was apparent during recent statements, where he praised the model partnership between the two countries, emphasizing their historical cooperation. He expressed eagerness to discuss not only arms sales but also broader regional issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the current war between Israel and Hamas. Erdogan's prior dealings with Trump might give him unique leverage as he hopes for rapid dialogue over such pressing matters.
Likewise, Trump's foreign policy has often emphasized his unconventional approach. Experts suggest his past dealings show him favoring resolution through personal relationships rather than institutional protocols. This could mean Turkey's concerns about the Israeli airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon may find more willing ears under Trump than during Biden's administration. Trump previously advised Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resolve these conflicts swiftly, indicating he might prioritize U.S.-Israel ties over Turkey's diplomatic interests. Erdogan's call for Trump to honor campaign promises, including halting arms shipments to Israel, reflects the reshaping dynamics of this relationship.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical chessboard is more complex than ever. Erdogan's views on accommodating U.S. interests come with strings attached as he no longer wants to remain sidelined due to previous tensions. Turkish officials have indicated they foresee room for improved dialogue, hoping the right diplomatic environment can be established.
Consideration of Erdogan’s ambitions brings us to the significant role Turkey hopes to play concerning the Ukraine crisis. Through his stated desire for Turkey to act as a mediator, Erdogan has expressed confidence about the potential for conflict resolution. He mentioned Turkey’s successful past mediations, showcasing its self-appointed position as peacemaker. With Trump’s leadership set to kick off anew, Erdogan intends to propose hosting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which could alter the war's current dynamics.
Meanwhile, Trump's approach to China signals potential turbulence. Following Xi Jinping's warm note of congratulations, both nations are aware of the needing to maintain dialogue and avoid outright confrontation. Yet, the unpredictability Trump's administration is known for could unravel this fragile rapport easily, as experts fear we might witness the dismantling of structured diplomatic channels and find ourselves back at square one.
Trading jabs through tariffs is also coming back to the forefront of U.S.-China relations. Trump's appetite for imposing sweeping tariffs is greater than before, requiring businesses to rush imports before his planned taxes take effect. Yet this could have ramifications for American consumers, especially lower-income ones, who might feel the pinch from inflated prices on everyday goods. Businesses already struggling with tangled supply chains might buckle under increased disruptions, leading to retaliatory measures from affected trading partners and potentially igniting wider trade wars.
Technology will also play center stage, especially with national security assessments heated around advanced technology transfers. It’s expected Trump will either maintain or tighten restrictions on sensitive technologies heading to Beijing. The chiefs behind autonomous vehicle technology will likely face scrutiny as Washington's security teams will monitor closely for any indications of espionage. These shifts will not only challenge Trump's administration but may also aggravate relations with allies concerned about the economic intertwined nature of technology and diplomacy.
While some may argue about whether Trump can successfully draw upon past experiences to mitigate risks and navigate through these complex dynamics, his presidency promises to be anything but predictable. With large scale of diplomatic resets poised to unravel, can he create lasting peace where tensions have historically risen? The stakes are enormous, and the efforts of leaders like Erdogan will play out on the global stage, influencing everything from arms negotiations to long-term strategies to combat instability. The global political environment seems set for riveting changes—expect more dramatic shifts as Trump takes back the central stage.
