Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on Mexican goods have raised concerns among avocado packers, but they remain optimistic about their continued exports during the Super Bowl season. While the uncertainty looms, Mexican producers like Agustín del Río are pushing forward, confident the consumers will crave their avocados.
On February 10, 2025, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican avocado imports, coinciding with the peak export season for avocados as Americans prepare for the Super Bowl, where guacamole is expected to be a key item at many gatherings. According to the Mexican Association of Producers and Exporters of Avocado (APEAM), 110,000 tons of avocados were exported for this event this year alone.
Mexico is the world’s largest avocado producer, with exports valued at over $3 billion annually to the United States. Despite pressure from Trump, who accuses Mexico of tolerancing illegal fentanyl traffickers and immigration, producers remain resolute. Del Río, for example, stated, “The trees are here, the avocados are here, the customer is going to want them.”
The reversal of Trump's threatened tariffs might hinge upon negotiations between both countries, with Mexico agreeing to deploy 10,000 soldiers at the U.S. border. Confirming this, Trump recently conceded to delay the tariffs for one month, until early March, to allow discussions to occur.
While avocado producers are pushing to meet the demand for the Super Bowl, concerns linger about rising prices should tariffs be enacted. Currently, the average price of avocados stands at $3.20 per kilogram, but it could skyrocket to $4.00 if the tariff takes effect, sending cascading effects through the economy.
Economic experts warn of the wider repercussions, emphasizing how these tariffs could significantly diminish Mexico's competitiveness against other avocado-exporting countries like Peru and Chile. These two countries export avocados at much lower prices—Peru at $2.60 and Chile at $3.60 per kilogram. A price surge for Mexican avocados would put them at risk of losing market share.
Adding to the existing challenges, avocado producers must also navigate theft and robbery concerns related to organized crime activities, particularly amid past instances of violence within the region. Yet, many workers express relief over the temporary suspension of tariffs, alongside hopes for stable future demands.
The economic interrelation exemplified here, stemming from the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), continues to shape trade dynamics. Post renegotiation under Trump, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has also influenced trade practices. Mexican avocado exporters are feeling the full brunt of these economic reprisals even as the industry remains resilient.
Under the also recently proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Trump stated, “We’re going to impose tariffs on those cars, we don’t want those cars, we can make them right here.” He cited concerns about automotive production and the potential for job losses within U.S. manufacturing sectors, primarily Detroit.
Mexican economic representatives react diversely, expressing fears of job losses resulting from increased import costs. For example, Arturo Reveles of the National Chamber of the Transformation Industry indicates there might be around 2,000 jobs threatened should tariffs be levied. It’s estimated there are about 100,000 jobs at stake due to the implication of steel tariffs.
The effect of Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs goes beyond just avocado prices, as noted by experts. It could lead to inflation, marking increased costs to consumers across various sectors reliant on Mexican imports. The economic reactions observed among investors prompted the U.S. dollar to climb slightly against other currencies.
During this uncertain period, both the leaders of the United States and Mexico are acutely aware of the interdependencies at play. Not only do these tariffs threaten to disrupt production and supply chains significantly, but they can also ripple through community livelihoods, affecting farmers, packers, and consumers alike.
This season of football, marked by the consumption of copious amounts of guacamole, becomes emblematic of the larger economic battles fought on trade fronts between nations.
Without future negotiations leading to concrete agreements, producers like Del Río may feel the tension of economic realities reflected not just on their balance sheets, but also on the plates of consumers across the United States.
While hopes linger for favorable conditions, the stakes remain high, and vigilance continues as producers navigate their way through the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s trade policies.