Donald Trump is back with promises of hard-hitting economic policies targeting major trading partners, but the clarity of his China strategy remains questionable. Just days before Thanksgiving, Trump declared intentions to impose new tariffs on the United States' three largest trading partners—Mexico, Canada, and China—upon resuming the presidency. Yet, as of February 1, 2025, only the tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect, leading to growing speculation about Trump's stance on China.
Throughout his first term, Trump was often caught between his tough rhetoric and actual policy actions, exemplified by his claims of labeling China as a currency manipulator, which he later reneged on. The U.S. administration's earlier attempts to penalize the Chinese-backed ZTE Corporation fizzled out rather quickly. Such inconsistencies drew mockery from Chinese state media, which ran headlines like “Trump slaps self in face, again” when his policies didn’t align with his aggressive statements.
With his second term looming, Trump’s recent comments hint at the possibility of reinstated tariffs on China, as he stated his administration is "in the process" of moving forward. Still, he refrained from making any concrete announcements, raising eyebrows among economists and political analysts alike. Edward Fishman, who served as a sanctions expert during the Obama administration, voiced concerns over this uncertain approach. “Trump's strategy will undercut the potency of U.S. economic weapons,” he asserted, identifying how this could embolden China and reduce the efficacy of U.S. punitive measures.
Notably, as Democrats and Republicans both agree on the need for confronting Chinese policies, the unity of purpose fades when it narrows to Trump’s unpredictable style. Voices from Washington reveal deep divisions on how to effectively approach Beijing, especially with Trump's return—a scenario where chaos or calm could ensue, depending largely on his unpredictability.
Contrasting Trump’s uncertainty, President Biden has maintained his position on the need for strategic alliances as part of U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing the need to compete without provoking direct conflict. Biden recently noted, “China would never surpass the US economically,” reinforcing his administration’s approach to keeping China’s rise in check through allied partnerships.
It's also important to highlight how the uncertainty around Trump’s policy could backfire and actually deepen China's global economic ties. Dan Drezner, a political scientist, remarked on the geopolitical shifting during Trump’s previous administration: “This episode was a gift to China’s interests in the region,” expressing concerns about how U.S. actions could lead to greater Chinese influence, particularly among nations feeling pressured by American policy.
Meanwhile, earlier ambitions expressed by Trump during his campaign to ban TikTok—part of broader U.S. concerns about digital safety and Chinese influence—now seem to have left the scene without action. Observers note the lack of explanation from Trump about his retreat from such aggressive measures against Chinese tech firms, leaving his own critics wondering about his real stance going forward.
The situation is particularly ripe with speculation, as the economy shifts and turbulence reigns. Trump's declared intentions don't necessarily translate to firm action, and many are left awaiting clarification. Analysts suggest this pattern of oscillation only fosters greater uncertainty both domestically and on the global stage.
The upcoming months will be pivotal, especially as Trump faces out his ideas against Biden's established approach. What remains clear is the expectation among many political watchers: China's global ambition isn't waning; if anything, it's on track to surge. The inconsistencies of Trump’s policies could leave room for greater Chinese advances.
While Trump's post-election strategies may signal hardball tactics on the surface, the result of his reputed unpredictability might lead to more confusion than clarity for U.S.-China relations, highlighting the need for strategic consistency as both nations navigate the treacherous waters of trade and diplomacy.