With Donald Trump set to reclaim the presidency on January 20, 2025, global capitals are bracing for substantial shifts in U.S. foreign policy. Trump's first term was characterized by unpredictability, especially concerning trade relations, and many nations are anxious about what his second term might entail. According to reports, members of Trump's presidential transition team are already laying the groundwork for the U.S. to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) on the very first day of his administration.
Lawrence Gostin, professor of global health at Georgetown University, emphasized the grave implications of such a withdrawal, stating, "I have it on good authority... probably on Day One or very early in his administration," noting how this would align with Trump's longstanding criticisms of the UN health agency. Should these plans materialize, it would mark a drastic shift away from the U.S.'s role as a global health leader, effectively isolting the country from key international efforts to combat pandemics.
During his first presidency, Trump's approach was heavily focused on trade, often employing tariffs as leverage, which led to trade wars with several nations. His administration's attitude created unease among allies; similar strategies are expected to dominate during his anticipated second term. Observers, including economic analysts at State Street Global Advisors, noted how market volatility will likely accompany Trump's new policies, especially concerning trade relations with countries like China.
Investment firms predict significant impacts on gold and other commodities as Trump's new tariffs —potentially as high as 60% on Chinese goods—could drive inflation. They stated, "Gold remains an... hedge against rising inflation, geopolitical instability, and potential currency devaluations," indicating heightened demand for gold under the prevailing uncertainties. This echoes historical patterns seen during Trump's first term when gold prices surged amid economic fluctuations.
Beyond tariffs, Trump's foreign relations strategy is drawing attention as well. India, for example, is seen as strategically significant for counterbalancing China's influence, and it’s expected to maintain strong ties with the U.S. due to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s cordial relationship with Trump. Conversely, U.S.-Russia relations could face hurdles, particularly with Trump needing to engage Moscow on various international issues, such as the conflict with Ukraine, which may complicate how he approaches diplomacy with both nations.
Trump's rhetoric has already caused ripples through international discourse, as highlighted by his recent comments concerning the Panama Canal during Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. "If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand... the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America," he declared, provoking criticism from Panama's president, who reiterated the canal's status is non-negotiable. This is not the first time Trump has issued such remarks, raising suspicions about whether they are more about personal grievances than diplomatic strategy.
Critics of Trump's potential second administration also share concerns about the ramifications of abandoning international alliances, particularly the WHO. Gostin voiced concerns, delivered through Reuters, about the effects of such action, warning, "The U.S. would lose influence and clout in global health and China would fill the vacuum." This fear encapsulates the sentiments of many who foresee diminished collaborative efforts to address global health crises.
All these developments suggest fierce challenges for Trump as he steps back onto the global stage. His administration's approach will have to navigate domestic political opposition, all the wider geopolitical shifts, and the immediate demands of international relations. Consequently, Trump's second term appears poised to reshape not only U.S. diplomatic practices but also the global balance of power.
Conclusively, as countries monitor the immediate impacts of Trump's re-election, one thing remains certain: the path forward for U.S. foreign policy under Trump's leadership will be filled with both promise and peril, ushering unpredictable consequences for nations worldwide.
