With the holiday travel season underway, many are feeling the uncertainty of the future, particularly those reliant on work visas. Among them is Victoria Chen, a 31-year-old software engineer based out of Palo Alto, California. After Donald Trump was projected to win the presidential election again, she decided to reschedule her upcoming trip to China for the Lunar New Year—a decision underscored by the expected return of restrictive immigration policies.
For foreign workers seeking employment within the United States, particularly those applying for H-1B visas, the current climate appears promising, with the National Foundation for American Policy reporting a staggering approval rate of over 97% for fiscal year 2024. This rate marks one of the highest success levels seen over the last decade. Despite this, immigration experts express concern about potential shifts under Trump's second administration, which could mean adopting previously strict policies.
During Trump's first term, many experienced significant changes to immigration and visa processes. Sharvari Dalal-Deini, senior director of government relations at the American Immigration Lawyers Association, remarked, "I think it's going to be harder and it's going to be more complicated to approve things." She emphasizes how the incoming administration's approach may steer visa applications back to turbulence seen previously.
Originated as part of the legal framework to allow U.S. employers to fill specialized positions within technology and engineering, the H-1B visa program has seen over 85,000 visas issued through lottery each year. The majority—nearly 70%—of these visas are awarded to Indian workers, followed by Chinese nationals. Proponents of the program maintain it plays a pivotal role in attracting top-tier talent to the U.S. workforce, particularly within fertile industries such as tech. A 2016 study noted nearly 25% of billion-dollar startups had founders who were international students.
Yet, critics claim the program undermines American workers, arguing it allows corporations to hire cheaper labor, which inevitably minimizes job opportunities and drives down wages for U.S. labor. Ira Melman, media director at FAIR, poignantly remarked, "There are a lot of tech workers here…that should be the first solution for these companies, to come and hire people who are American citizens." He added, "This is supposed to be a program...that says you’re going to come here for a period of time, ... and then you’re going to come home."
Despite pressure from such advocates, questions loom about the Trump administration's direction. Following his previous signature 'Buy American, Hire American' executive order—which tightened foreign worker qualifications and salary standards—one wonders if those tactics will return. Immigration officials had taken various measures to enforce stricter scrutiny, leading to rejection rates rising sharply compared to the Obama administration where rejection rates were under 10%.
"That worries me," Kathleen Campbell Walker, head of immigration practice at Dickinson Wright, articulated about the heightened scrutiny potentially impacting H-1B approvals. She noted increasing rigorous evidentiary requirements from federal authorities could complicate the application process significantly.
While Trump’s transition team remains relatively silent about specific visa rules, the campaign has indicated revival of prior policies is on the horizon. Notably, the arrival of hardline figures, such as new deputy chief of staff Stephen Mueller, signals tough measures against legal immigration could be impending.
Interestingly, Trump has floated the idea of granting green cards to graduates of U.S. universities. This presents some conflicting signals and leaves many workers and employers hopeful yet apprehensive. For example, companies like Tesla are actively engaging foreign talent, hiring 742 new workers under the H-1B framework—solidifying their position as the 16th largest firm employing H-1B workers.
Despite suggestions such as these from Trump and differing views within his administration, experts argue the core agenda remains value on American labor over foreign workers. The challenge, then, for many skilled international professionals continues to be the volatility surrounding the future of emigration policy and the H-1B visa program.
The pressing uncertainty surrounding the H-1B visa process thrives as many await the January 2025 presidential inauguration. For professionals like Victoria Chen, whose careers hinge on these laws, the stakes couldn’t be higher as they plan their futures both inside and outside the United States.
