With Donald Trump poised for another term as U.S. president, the air at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima is thick with anticipation and anxiety. On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping made headlines by issuing a strong condemnation of both unilateralism and protectionism, calling for nations to unite around the principles of economic globalization. His words serve as both warning and strategic positioning as China prepares to navigate what many expect will be heightened tensions under Trump’s administration.
Xi’s comments were delivered through Commerce Minister Wang Wentao during the APEC CEO Summit, shedding light on China’s approach as the 2024 election winner embarks on his second presidency. Trump has publicly committed to imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, which could soar past 60%. But rather than cower under the prospect of tougher trade relations, Beijing appears to see potential opportunities to bolster its global influence and gain favor, particularly with U.S. allies who might also be affected.
“The world has entered a new period of turmoil and change, unilateralism and protectionism are spreading,” Xi remarked, emphasizing the need for collaboration. He highlighted China’s proactive measures to solicit foreign investment, which now includes easing restrictions on foreign access to Chinese markets and introducing visa exemptions for visitors—a clear gesture of goodwill amid global skepticism.
Xi's rhetoric was backed by concrete steps China plans to undertake, such as implementing more independent and unilateral open policies aimed at broadening the framework for international trade. Despite this optimistic outlook, not all analysts are convinced. Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, spoke on the shifting perceptions since Trump's first presidency, cautioning against viewing China as simply the antidote to protectionism. "China is as protectionist as the U.S. might be," he pointed out, highlighting discussions surrounding state subsidies and China’s overall resolve to maintain domestic stability at the expense of international competition.
Attending the summit alongside Xi were hundreds of Chinese business leaders, who are likely fueled by the potential of significant partnership opportunities across resource-rich Latin America. Some attendees even observed the strength of the Chinese delegation, with one Peruvian businessman noting, "The Chinese vastly outnumbered everyone else," pointing to their growing economic reach.
Meanwhile, as the APEC summit progresses, the specter of Trump’s return looms large over every discussion, prompting Beijing to activate its contingency plans. A source close to China’s national security suggested retaliatory measures could include imposing tariffs on U.S. and European goods and even utilizing administrative procedures—such as heightened tax audits and accusations of intellectual property theft—to address grievances.
China's strategy also involves leveraging its involvement with multilateral organizations to apply pressure on the U.S. Among these is the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which emerged following the U.S.’s withdrawal from its predecessor during Trump’s prior term. This could allow China to strengthen ties with other nations and diminish its reliance on U.S.-dominated trading systems.
Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China aims to reinforce its economic footprint worldwide. The expectation is to bolster trade and transport agreements, particularly with countries needing investment, which could mitigate the impact of U.S. trade policies.
China might adopt more aggressive stances geographically as well, focusing on strengthening its claims over the East and South China Seas and asserting control over the Taiwan Strait—a move many analysts believe could provoke heightened military tensions with the U.S. Such tactics might even include portraying routine patrols as military exercises to provoke responses from American assets stationed nearby.
Trump’s anticipated hardline stance has prompted some speculation about how Beijing might sway public opinion by capitalizing on perceived weaknesses within the U.S. political structure. Research from the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates Beijing may dampen confidence among Taiwan residents about U.S. support, seeking to amplify doubts about the reliability of American commitments.
Strengthening alliances with authoritarian regimes—like Russia, Iran, and North Korea—could also be on the table. Such partnerships might involve collaborations aimed at countering Western ideologies and orchestrations, as China aims to present itself as the harbinger of economic stability against what it views as hostile U.S. policies.
Throughout the APEC summit, the interplay between Xi’s public declarations and the behind-the-scenes strategic maneuvers reveals the complex chess game being played on the international stage. With the gear turning toward the return of Trump to the presidency, the global economic environment stands on the brink of potentially significant changes, and all eyes will remain on how China navigates these turbulent waters to maintain its economic prowess.
