With the dust barely settled from the most recent U.S. elections, the world is once again bracing itself for the ebbs and flows of international relations, particularly those between the United States and China. The dynamics of this relationship are shifting significantly as Donald Trump prepares for his return to the White House. President Biden is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held this Saturday. This summit is viewed as pivotal, not just for bilateral relations, but for broader geopolitical stability.
The impending face-to-face meeting between Biden and Xi marks the first major engagement between the two since Trump’s election and follows tense years marked by tariffs, tech disputes, and military posturing. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized the importance of this transition, saying, “Transitions are uniquely consequential moments in geopolitics.” The atmosphere reflects both caution and opportunity, as the two nations navigate their complex relationship.
Trump has painted himself as unfriendly to China, having previously promised to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods, should he reclaim the presidency. Those remarks have kept Washington on edge, pondering how far such rhetoric might stretch the already fraught U.S.-China ties. Seeing the signs of potential aggression from the incoming administration, Sullivan stated, “Part of what President Biden will communicate is the need to maintain stability, clarity, and predictability through this transition.”
During Trump's first term, the U.S. imposed tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese products, leading to significant disruptions not only between the two powers but also among their respective allies. Discussions surrounding China’s support for Russia during its military actions against Ukraine have only added to the list of grievances. The current U.S. administration has repeatedly raised concerns over China's military assertiveness, particularly toward Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. Such provocations have contributed to heightened tensions, causing both nations to adopt defensive postures.
Meanwhile, China has been busy solidifying its relationships across Latin America and working to project itself as a reliable partner amid U.S. indecisiveness. This week, Brazilian President Luiz Iáacio Lula da Silva is focusing on strengthening China's investment ties through infrastructure projects, aiming to establish connections to the Pacific and onward to the Chinese market. Lula’s government is deepening its involvement with Beijing without officially declaring allegiance to the Belt and Road Initiative, which has historically raised alarms within the U.S. administration.
A recent infrastructure project—a new road network cutting travel time for shipping goods to China—could potentially boost Brazil’s GDP by $22 billion annually. Irrespective of U.S. warnings against enhanced engagement with China, Lula is determined to steer Brazil toward economic transformation through these partnerships.
According to sources familiar with the Brazilian government's strategy, Lula’s administration aims to focus on cooperative projects involving clean energy and modernization of industry. China has responded positively to Brazil's overtures, preparing for Xi's upcoming visit, which will be marked by discussions surrounding investments and mutual growth potentials.
On the other hand, Trump's administration's outlook on global trade is even bleaker than perceived under Biden, with strong indications of renewed tariffs and aggressive economic policies aimed at curbing China's expansionism. Companies and allies around the globe are left to navigate these waters of uncertainty as Trump's economic policies could push them away from the U.S. market. This is particularly concerning for nations like Brazil, which previously relied on the U.S. for agricultural exports, now courting China amid Trump's fierce protectionism.
During the APEC summit, both Trump and Biden are expected to engage not only with Xi but also with other world leaders like Indonesia's President Probowo Subianto, who has expressed the need to manage regional tensions more effectively. Subianto has indicated the country's focus on stabilizing trade and economic cooperation, reflecting broader regional goals.
Trump has been aggressive about reforming U.S. trade policies and his administration's tax reforms yesterday proposed economic strategies favoring domestic production over international cooperation. This opposition speaks volumes about how U.S. corporate interests view the shift toward Asia, particularly when it overlaps with Trumps’ roles as negotiator and policy arbiter on the global stage.
But will this heavier economic hand change the structure of international relations? China remains active on all fronts, bolstering ties across Latin America through deliberate investment ventures. Recently, Xi reiterated the pivot of Chinese investment toward stabilizing countries, enhancing trade routes, and securing resources, fortifying its influence around the world.
The stakes are undeniably high as nations await what could be one of the most transformative periods for U.S.-China relations yet. Expectations are set for substantial discussions during the APEC summit, steering clear of Trump’s intense anti-trade rhetoric and focusing on climate negotiations where both superpowers will be watching closely how the future begins to unfurl.
