International organizations based in Geneva are bracing for significant challenges as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House on January 20, 2025. With uncertainty looming over the United States’ financial contributions, particularly to humanitarian and human rights institutions, agencies within Geneva fear potential repercussions on their operations worldwide.
Trump, who has previously demonstrated skepticism toward multilateralism, including pulling the U.S. from various international treaties during his first term, poses difficult questions for these organizations. Notably, the U.S. is the largest contributor to the UN, providing about 28% of total contributions and funding specific agencies like the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) at nearly 40.7%.
Concerns have heightened post-election, particularly following the appointment of Elise Stefanik—who lacks diplomatic experience—as the U.S. Ambassador to the UN. Stefanik's previous statements suggest her view on the necessity of reevaluated funding for organizations she believes exhibit bias against Israel, signaling potential funding cuts for Geneva-based agencies.
This precarious financial situation is compounded by the continued violations of international humanitarian law reported throughout 2024. With wars raging across Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, international humanitarian agencies highlighted the pressing need to reinforce protections for civilian populations. By the end of November 2024, the working life of humanitarian personnel had become increasingly perilous, with over 280 individuals lost across 19 nations, signaling how dire the global scenario has become.
Jointly, the International Committee of the Red Cross, alongside several countries, launched global initiatives to prioritize the enforcement of international humanitarian laws, coinciding with the 75th anniversary of the Geneva Conventions. These efforts call for heightened political commitment to uphold humanitarian standards amid increasing global conflicts.
Switzerland, the host country and guardian of the Geneva Conventions, also prepares to facilitate the “High Contracting Parties Conference” scheduled for March 2025. This meeting, requested by the UN General Assembly, aims to reinforce commitments to the Fourth Geneva Convention, particularly emphasizing obligations to protect civilians during conflicts like the current unrest throughout the Middle East.
The growing humanitarian needs reported at the Geneva Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicate approximately 305 million people globally are expected to require assistance, with the projected cost soaring to $47 billion. Many nations—including Switzerland—are reportedly cutting international aid budgets, leading to concerns about the feasibility of raising these funds to address urgent crises.
October 2024 also saw the Israeli parliament approve laws restricting the operations of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) within its territory. This could dramatically undermine humanitarian aid efforts to areas like Gaza, currently grappling with devastation from prolonged conflicts.
The future of humanitarian efforts hinges on the anticipated changes to international funding under Trump's administration, creating uncertainty for organizations reliant on U.S. contributions. Trump’s unyielding stance against established global frameworks raises questions about the continuity and effectiveness of international humanitarian laws.
History may repeat itself as Trump’s presidency challenges international cooperatives, creating ripple effects of uncertainty. The U.S. withdrawal from various international agreements and increased protectionism during his previous term caused widespread concern over the functionality of global organizations.
The humanitarian crisis is compounded by the International Committee of the Red Cross’s launches aiming to increase respect for humanitarian laws, reinforcing their necessity amid growing global conflicts where laws are frequently overlooked.
Simultaneously, discussions surrounding the long-neglected global pandemic treaty process shift to 2025. Originally meant to conclude by the end of 2024, negotiations now extend another full year as nations grapple with ownership rights over vaccine formulas, dissemination of information about pathogens, and equitable vaccine distribution—all points of contention stalling progress toward public health security amid eventual pandemic readiness.
Despite the tumultuous environment, those engaged with Geneva’s humanitarian agenda are adopting proactive stances aimed at securing necessary financing and reinforcing international laws. The upcoming year could redefine how humanitarian organizations operate and adapt to swinging political tides.
The year 2025 stands as pivotal for humanitarian aid and international relations. Whether Trump’s election will justify predicted shifts or incite unforeseen conflicts remains uncertain, yet the echoes of 2024 are clearer than ever, urging stakeholders to brace for potential changes with far-reaching global impact.
