Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House is shaking up international relations, particularly between the U.S. and China. This week, as President Joe Biden prepares for his final summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the backdrop of this meeting looms large with the impending transition to the Trump administration. The stakes are high, as both leaders have much to discuss against the turbulence of recent bilateral tensions and the promises Trump has made.
Set against the stunning vistas of Peru, where Pacific leaders gather for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Biden's meeting with Xi is the culmination of months of diplomatic efforts to stabilize U.S.-China relations. This encounter marks their third face-to-face meeting since Biden took office, and it arrives under the cloud of last week’s election results. Trump has pledged to adopt a hardline approach to China, raising the question of how this rule will affect the longstanding yet delicate relationship.
Biden’s administration has navigated numerous contentious issues, such as technology competition, human rights, and military assertiveness from China toward Taiwan and the South China Sea. During this summit, Biden is expected to address several pressing matters, including concerns over China’s alleged support for Russia amid the Ukraine crisis, cybersecurity threats, and the flow of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, which have been tied to rising overdose deaths in the U.S.
The atmosphere is tense, particularly as Trump's administration is likely to inherit significant challenges. While the shift may bode well for some, it also signals potential escalations, especially if Trump acts on his campaign promise of imposing substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, which could siphon off the fragile gains made through previous trade negotiations.
Before Trump even settles back behind the Resolute Desk, his presence is felt internationally. Influential figures within the Chinese government are already recalibrated their strategies as they brace themselves for Trump's return to power. For Xi, meeting with Biden now serves as both proactive diplomacy and damage control to manage the impending upheaval.
Meanwhile, the Philippines are taking steps to strengthen their defense systems to offset regional threats, particularly from China. Following Trump's re-election, allies like the Philippines have been invigorated to bolster cooperation with the U.S. This commitment was exhibited through the Philippines' desire to procure advanced military capabilities, such as the U.S.-made Typhon missile system, greatly enhancing their deterrent posture.
At the same time, concerns are mounting among Chinese officials and analysts about the Philippines' ambitions. The Chinese state-run Global Times recently warned the Philippines might become “a troublemaker” if it continues its defense collaboration with the U.S. as tensions mount over territory claims.
With Trump expected to bring on more hawkish advisers and cabinet officials, the Philippines' proactive military measures suggest they are determined not to cower against proximity to China's sprawling military ambitions. Insights from news sources indicate the Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano has confirmed there is no established timeline for relinquishing the missile system, underscoring their dedication to enhancing military competency.
Meanwhile, Washington's strategic posturing includes leveraging its military presence and technological capabilities to deter threats posed by Beijing, making the Indo-Pacific region grounds for significant geopolitical maneuvering.
What makes the situation even more precarious is the backdrop of China's rapidly assertive military modernization. Countries bordering the South China Sea must now contend with the consequences of their parsed relations, both on regional security and self-defense capabilities. The APEC summit, where Biden and Xi will meet, is expected to reveal how both leaders will navigate this shift.
Trump's administration is anticipated to test the waters with policies aimed at reigniting trading disputes, which, based on past history, led to economically damaging retaliatory tariffs. It is this charged atmosphere enveloping U.S.-China relations and the future of regional stability, particularly under the lens of Trump's assertive foreign policy, which promises to echo across the globe.
Though the Biden-Xi talks were once seen as opportunities to find common ground, they are laden with the reality of shifting winds. While Chinese officials call for “continuity and stability” amid the U.S. leadership transition, the challenges waiting for Trump come from all sides. Indeed, the world watches as the two superpowers prepare for their next chapter of precarious negotiations and potential turbulence.
Whether Trump’s return will lead to warmer relations or heightened tensions remains to be seen, but on Saturday, the meeting between Biden and Xi is destined to be marked by reflection, anticipation, and trepidation around America’s future dealings with China.
