Donald Trump's return to the political forefront as President-elect raises numerous questions about what this might mean for global geopolitics, especially concerning U.S. relations with Israel and Europe. With the recent war between Israel and Hamas igniting conversations across the globe, Trump's impact on the situation seems poised to be significant. His administration had previously taken strong pro-Israel stances, leading many analysts to predict similar policies upon his return to the White House.
According to Joel Rosenberg, who spoke on CBN News, Israelis have shown overwhelming support for Trump's leadership. Polls indicating 66% of Israeli voters favored Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, who only garnered 17%, showcase the stark difference between the two candidates from the perspective of Israeli citizens. Rosenberg pointed out, “Israelis overwhelmingly wanted Trump. This is interesting, right? Because, obviously, Israelis obviously can't vote in the election.” This sentiment reflects the broader Israeli perspective on U.S. foreign policy concerning their nation.
Rosenberg highlighted how Trump’s previous presidency was marked by supportive actions for Israel, such as moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This move symbolized America’s unwavering support for Israel, intricately linking Trump’s policies to his reelection and the continuing conflict with Hamas. He stated, “This is after the Kamala Harris closing argument — 'Trump's a Nazi, Trump's a fascist, Trump is Hitler.'” This rhetoric did not resonate with Israelis, who instead favored the practical achievements of the Trump administration.
Indeed, Trump's noted lack of confrontation with Israel during his previous tenure contrasts sharply with the more complex relationship Biden has had with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Echoing these sentiments, Rosenberg suggested Trump might consistently back Israeli policies relating to the Hamas situation, thereby reshaping future engagements if he follows through on his pro-Israel promises as president.
Looking toward Europe, Trump’s reelection could alter the dynamics of transatlantic security and defense, especially amid the continuing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The European Union may find itself needing to bolster its military capacity as Trump might adopt policies favoring non-intervention and reduced U.S. involvement. The article titled “Trump 2.0 and European Security” published by ORF highlights how this shift could force Europe to take security matters seriously on its own.
Experts Shairee Malhotra and Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash argue Trump’s presidency could facilitate negotiations for a ceasefire or peace talks concerning Ukraine. Malhotra and Jayaprakash's insights project the possibility of Trump encouraging Europe to explore new frameworks for cooperation and defense autonomously. They note, “EU is now set to take European security matters more independently.”
With comprehensive transitions expected across various international fronts, Trump's policies could heavily influence longstanding cultural and political alliances. The strategic foresight with which European leaders react could sculpt the continent's defense identity for years to come, especially if NATO members find themselves reassessing their roles.
If Trump’s administration continues to solidify ties with Israel through recommended actions like bolstering military aid or engaging directly with Palestinian authorities, the regional power dynamics could shift significantly. Experts on Middle Eastern politics foresee diplomatic ties potentially straining, depending on Trump's actions toward both Israel and Palestine.
Existing conflicts may gain new trajectories unknown to the current administration under Biden. The U.S. commitment to foreign aid and defense assistance for Israel could enter uncharted priorities if Trump decides to reverse any limitations imposed by Biden’s leadership. The back-and-forth on these policies from opposing administrations undoubtedly complicates how regional powers influence U.S. interests.
Despite the promising prospects of pro-Israel policies, the potential for backlash from neighboring nations could exacerbate tensions, leading to more aggressive stances from affected parties. Rosenberg pointed out, “Regardless of what happens next, it already seems Trump is making good on his pledge to be pro-Israel.” Such measures might resurface previous grievances involving larger regional adversaries, potentially amplifying conflict if not strategically navigated.
Conversely, the display of unpopular sentiments toward Trump’s narrative from several quarters domestically could mean the opposition may capitalize on any missteps related to international policies. While many Israelis perceive his reelection positively, U.S. citizens may reflect on the divisiveness of Trump's policies—echoing sentiments heard during his previous campaign.
Generated fears could take root as U.S. engagement diverges from traditional platforms, leading to uncertainty about the future support offered to allies worldwide, especially Israel. Supporters view Trump's win as promising for Israeli security, whereas opponents worry this might lead to overlooking humanitarian crises exacerbated by foreign actions.
Reconciling such high stakes requires deft diplomacy, especially considering there's no turning back once policies are enacted. Leadership will test its mettle once Trump assumes office again, affecting not just Israel but potentially the broader Middle Eastern region.
Trump's administration promises to rehash longstanding narratives and alliances affecting perceptions of U.S. policy abroad. His approach to Israel’s conflict with Hamas, among other geopolitics, will undoubtedly keep both supporters and critics on alert as the new era under his leadership takes shape.
