The world is bracing itself for what might be another round of high-stakes politics as Donald Trump hints at running for president again. The potential impact of his policies, should he reclaim the Oval Office, has raised concerns across global economies, particularly as analysts gear up to assess how his actions could shape commerce and trade relationships. A significant focal point is the Thai economy, with experts already putting the pieces together on how Trump's stance might reverberate through various sectors.
According to the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Trump’s return could spell trouble for Thailand. Their analysis suggests if Trump proceeds with his proposed tariffs—such as levying 60% on imports from China and 10-15% on imports from other nations, Thailand included—it could wreak havoc to the tune of around 160,472 million baht (approximately $4.7 billion).
Thanawat Polvichai, chairman of the centre, explained the gravity of the situation, stating, "Trump's tariff-hike policy will have direct and indirect impacts on Thailand's exports combined, which may cause the country to lose 160,472 million baht in export value." A looming concern is how these tariffs might carve away at Thailand's export levels, leading to the feared result of around 1.52% decrease.
Throwing the Thai economy's health even more precariously on the scales, the report anticipated not only direct consequences—like uppercuts to Thai exports, predicted to plunge by $3.1 billion—but also indirect damage. The analysis highlights significant erosion of raw materials exported, particularly stemming from the China-U.S. supply chain, pegged at around 49,105 million baht, should the trade tensions escalate.
The ripple effect of these policies appears dire, as any retaliation from China could also spell disaster for Thailand, with potential declines of $75.8 million on exports linked to U.S. goods. All this paints a bleak picture, but survival and adaptation seem to be on the cards, as companies pivot to fill the gaps left by disrupted Chinese exports.
Still, not all hope is lost. There are indications Thailand could capitalize on this situation. If adaptations are made swiftly to meet the changing demand, the country could find opportunities to export products, especially machinery and electrical appliances, becoming the go-to alternative for imports no longer coming from China.
Looking forward, the centre maintains some optimism with forecasts indicating Thai exports could see modest growth. Analysts predict a 1.2% increase by the year’s end and aim for overall export growth of around 3.21% throughout 2024. Key drivers behind this growth are anticipated to be electronics, rubber products, and machinery, as these continue to be sought-after commodities both within the U.S. and Europe.
But like anything else, these growth forecasts come peppered with caveats. A potential spike in import tariffs could slash these projections, causing the expansion to stutter down to just 1.24% next year. Businesses, investors, and consumers are all left wondering just how tight the screws will become under another Trump administration.
The turbulence seen during Trump’s first presidency still echoes through trade discussions today. This time, if he implements similar policies, the consequences might go far beyond Thailand’s borders, reaching other economies deeply intertwined with U.S. trade, particularly across Asia.
To put things in perspective, the first wave of tariffs Trump slapped on China during his earlier term sparked trade deficits and economic upheavals, leaving considerable scars on local industries. The broader question of how these expansive moves would be received globally remains open, waiting for answers as the election nears.
It’s not just Thailand at stake here, but broader networks of economies worldwide intertwined with international trade agreements and supply chains. Every country, from those exporting raw commodities to high-tech materials, could find themselves grappling with the reverberations of shifting U.S. policies aimed at prioritizing home-grown production.
Taking it down to where the rubber meets the road, should Trump make it back to the presidency, global economies need to be ready, and Thailand should certainly brace itself for another shake-up of monumental proportions.
