After months of anticipation, the United States recently cast its votes, resulting in Donald Trump being projected as the President-elect. This news sent ripples through various international circles, particularly focusing on Taiwan, which now faces heightened uncertainties about its future.
Much of the world is currently engrossed by the conflicts, trade wars, and market fluctuations spurred by this election. A second Trump administration will not only shape the policies at home but will also have significant ramifications on global security, especially for nations like Ukraine and Taiwan, who are under direct threat from larger powers, namely Russia and China.
The Trump administration is known for its ‘America First’ strategy, which leans toward isolationism, prioritizing domestic issues over international alliances. This approach has sparked debates on whether U.S. military involvement globally truly delivers positive outcomes. The fallout from America’s abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan just adds to the skepticism surrounding military interventions.
Yet, Trump’s win raises concerns about U.S. involvement with its allies. Under his first presidency, America considerably supported Ukraine with military aid and funds amounting to $175 billion since the Russian invasion started. With Joe Biden's administration pledging to uphold support for Ukraine, Trump's perspective diverges sharply, showing intentions to reduce support and isolate American allies.
Even more troubling for Taiwan is Trump's rhetoric around its defense against China's looming threats. Observers noted Trump recently questioned whether Taiwan should contribute financially for U.S. protection, expressing sentiments reflecting skepticism around America’s role as Taiwan's stalwart ally. Specifically, he remarked, "Taiwan should pay us for defense," and labeled U.S. support for Taiwan as akin to paying for insurance, stating, "We’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything." This suggests the potential for significant shifts within U.S.-Taiwan relations under his administration.
Reports indicate Taiwanese officials harbor serious concerns, considering China’s ambitious strategies to assert control over Taiwan by 2027. They are already allocating 2.5% of their economic output toward defense, and any indication from the U.S. to withdraw support only exacerbates fears of possibly facing China alone. Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister François Chihchung Wu pointedly articulated this sentiment, stating, “If Trump [were to] abandon Taiwan, I wonder how he can make America Great Again because he would lose the support and credibility of the U.S. across the Asian Pacific.”
Commerce and trade relations with China also loom ominously over the potential second term. Trump’s threats of automatic tariffs ranging between 10% to 20% on every trading partner and up to 60% on Chinese goods could carry dire economic consequences. Economically, both American consumers and producers stand to suffer as prices for goods imported from China would inevitably hike, leading to long-term repercussions for the U.S. economy.
Meanwhile, developments concerning North Korea offer yet another dimension. Trump’s previous engagement with Kim Jong-un might lead to hopes of negotiations if he were to return to power. Experts suggest North Korea could possibly opt to re-engage diplomatically with the U.S. to negotiate terms favorable to its interests, including lifting sanctions on its nuclear weapons program.
On the African continent, the issues spiral around humanitarian crises spiraling downward. The Sudanese civil war has displaced countless individuals, and analysts predict a second Trump administration would likely sidestep involvement or aid for humanitarian efforts, having previously made unfortunate prioritization decisions during his first term, including neglecting civilian-driven governance initiatives.
Beyond mere military ties, the impact reaches sectors like global health as well. Trump’s administration has historically demonstrated reluctance to engage with U.N. agencies aimed at advancing public health, like the Global Fund for combating diseases. Critics fear funding cuts aimed at combating global health challenges would deepen under his rule.
Back to Taiwan, the outgoing administration has indicated readiness to strengthen democracy and independence assertions of Taiwan internationally. Yet, with Trump's ascension to the presidency, observers note there may be less enthusiasm for these independence efforts. The status shift leads to fears of what is termed “unconditional surrender” should the Trump administration pursue less interference-oriented foreign policies.
Trump's relations with China could also see new narratives take hold, considering his previous dialogues with Xi Jinping were marked by personal rapport. Yet, contradictory messages about Taiwan plummet the prospects of consensus. When asked whether he would defend Taiwan against potential Chinese invasion, Trump responded, “I wouldn’t have to, because he respects me and he knows I’m f—– crazy.” This raises questions about diplomatic stability as he also hinted at imposing steep tariffs should any aggression arise.
Overall, as Taiwan braces for what may come with Trump’s presidency, there exists more anxiety now compared to previous years. Initial cordial phone calls between the American president and Taiwanese leaders have been supplanted by more cautious stances, opting not to seek engagement but rather adopting realistic approaches amid rising military tensions.
Undoubtedly, Taiwan faces both the historical and contemporary dilemmas posed by Trump's return to power. The outcome could redefine not only U.S.-Taiwan ties but also reshape security norms across the entire Indo-Pacific region, calling for vigilant observation and responsive strategies.
