The atmosphere is thick with anxiety as the COP29 climate talks kick off this week in Azerbaijan, overshadowed by the re-election of Donald Trump, who has made no secret of his intention to reverse the climate policies put forth by the United States. Amid new warnings about record-breaking temperatures for the year 2024, nations are arriving at the United Nations' principal climate diplomacy forum, determined to address the pressing issues surrounding climate funding.
Since taking office, President Trump has labeled climate change as "a hoax" and pledged to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, which succinctly aims to cap global warming at significantly low levels. His administration's previous rollbacks of important climate initiatives have set the stage for skepticism among international delegates about the U.S.'s role this time around.
While outgoing President Joe Biden’s absence is notable, very few leaders from the Group of 20—a group of major economies responsible for nearly 80% of global emissions—are attending. Interestingly, this marks the first time Afghanistan will send representatives to the climate talks since the Taliban regained power, albeit with observer status. This has become particularly important as nations gather to reach agreement on factors such as increasing climate funding to help developing nations combat growing climate crises.
Among key points of contention during the talks will be the adequacy of the current $100 billion-a-year funding target. Developing countries are pushing for trillions, emphasizing the necessity of grants rather than loans to tackle climate challenges. Evans Njewa, chair of the LDC Climate Group, underlined the need for countries to demonstrate leadership through financial commitment. "Bring some money to the table so you show your leadership," he urged.
Adonia Ayebare from Uganda, chair of a bloc representing over 100 mainly developing countries and China, acknowledged the potential setbacks of Trump’s re-election. But he maintained, “This has happened before, we will find a way to realign.” His confidence hinges on the premise of maintaining collective global efforts to address climate challenges regardless of U.S. participation.
Compounding the global pressure on climate talks are fresh warnings asserting the world remains woefully off-track to meet targets set by the Paris Agreement. The deal aims for global warming to stay below 2°C—1.5°C being the preferred limit compared to pre-industrial levels. Alarming predictions indicate warming could reach dangerous levels, as the European Union's climate monitor suggests 2024 may soon lead to temperature spikes.
“Everyone knows these negotiations will not be easy; they are worth it,” said Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, stressing the importance of each tenth of degree avoided, which translates to fewer crises and less suffering worldwide. Approximately 51,000 people are expected to participate, continuing the trend of heavy attendance usually seen at COP events.
Since the successful but limited agreement at COP28, fossil fuel dependence and emissions continue to rise, and calls for disruption around accountability have been buoyed by the election of Trump. His approach heralds fears of less ambitious negotiations, even amid pressure from other nations to remain steadfast.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault expressed optimism about Canada’s role as consensus builders at the negotiation table. Despite disillusionment over historic failures to curb emissions—now at record levels—he stresses the urgent need for elevated funding commitments to build toward greater climate goals. "Our window to keep global average temperatures from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius is closing fast on us," he warned.
Activists, who have cheerfully responded to Trump's win with dismay, insist on the urgency of the talks and the pressing need for effective global action. They anticipate pushback from factions intent on undermining progress as the negotiations commence. Although pressed, Guilbeault reassured the public, citing efforts to stabilize conversation dynamics and climate commitments to potential action plans.
Going forward, the summit will also navigate new frameworks for international carbon markets, created to help offset emissions through investments in green projects around the world. Ani Dasgupta, the Chief of the World Resources Institute, articulated the connection between financing and ambition, stating, "You can’t have more ambition without finance; if you don’t have finance, you won’t commit to more ambition." This interconnectedness is the bedrock of talks expected to span November 11-22.
Developed nations are purported to fuel discussions enhancing climate action funding as the reports of fossil fuel lobbying loom. With the specter of years of unmet commitments dancing behind the scenes, the summit aims to mitigate the impending ramifications of climate change. Despite the struggles its participants face, the stakes of COP29 promise to reflect the collective urgency to combat one of the most significant challenges of our time.
