Donald Trump’s return to the national spotlight raises pertinent questions about the future of the Gaza conflict, especially with the recent escalation of military actions and the hostage crisis involving several individuals, including Americans. On the campaign trail, Trump has made his intentions clear: he wants the war to end, reportedly setting deadlines for Israel to complete operations against Hamas before his inauguration. But how much traction these campaign pledges will gain once he's back in office remains uncertain.
At the Republican convention, Trump issued stern warnings to Hamas, stating they would face “a very big price” if they didn’t release hostages before January 20. Yet, will this rhetoric translate to actionable outcomes? Experts on Middle Eastern policy are weighing their opinions, positing the answers hinge on several factors, including Trump’s specific plans—if he has any—and the role of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is juggling his own set of pressures.
Despite Trump’s insistence on wanting peace, analysts express skepticism about achieving any tangible results. "The war in Gaza, the intensive fighting, ended months ago. What we have now is counterinsurgency," commented Shira Efron, senior director at the Israel Policy Forum, emphasizing the complex situation on the ground. Efron suggested Israel could declare the war over yet plan to maintain military presence for years to come to stabilize the region.
On the other hand, some experts believe Trump grasps Israel's need for continued military action against its enemies. According to Mark Dubowitz, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Trump's approach appears to acknowledge the reality of Israeli military engagements beyond merely declaring the war over. Reportedly, he told Netanyahu to "Do what you have to do" before the latest Israeli strike on Iran, which indicates his potential support for proactive military measures.
What's unclear, though, is how Trump would define the end of war. Would it apply only when military operations cease? Trump’s prior claims have suggested he hopes for some decisive victory, but what winning looks like post-conflict, especially with the terrorist organization Hamas still operational, is still open to interpretation.
Currently, it's important to note Hamas has been adamant about ceasefire conditions, stating they won’t agree to any deal involving hostages without the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. Unlike the clear outlines presented by the Biden administration— which focused on hostages' releases and humanitarian assistance— Trump’s vision appears to lack the same clarity.
Political analysts express doubts about whether Trump's presence could effectively push Netanyahu to make significant changes. Jeremy Ben-Ami from J Street, who has long advocated for peace talks, noted the unpredictability surrounding Trump complicates any attempts to forecast his foreign policy goals with clarity. He believes Netanyahu has been cautious, signaling potential plans to declare military victory if Trump takes office, yet whether those plans will materialize amid pressing internal and external pressures remains to be seen.
Even with speculation surrounding the dynamics between Trump and Netanyahu, some indicate Netanyahu might feel emboldened under Trump’s administration. Observers like David Makovsky, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, note Netanyahu's objectives likely align more comfortably with Trump than with Biden, who has pushed for stricter responses to Israeli military actions.
Setting aside who wields more influence at the moment, it's feasible Trump could provoke changes conducive to settling the conflict as he dreams of constructing new diplomatic relationships, drawing parallels to the Abraham Accords seen during his previous presidency.
Yet, this vision could run afoul of Netanyahu’s coalition - which has grown increasingly right-leaning and favoring sustained military durability against Hamas. Israeli defense strategies leaned heavily on uprooting Hamas entirely before any such shakeup can be realized, thereby complicing the dynamics of achieving any peace-driven goals.
For those concerned about the hostages, like their families, Trump's win serves as both hope and uncertainty, since many fear the fragmented political groundwork might obstruct the timely return of their loved ones. “This is not just politics; this is catastrophically urgent for our families,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum stated. They called for bipartisan efforts to resolve the hostage situation, urging Trump to collaborate with Biden’s administration during the transition period.
Nevertheless, Trump’s past approach to transition - often regarded as controversial due to his dissent toward establishing links with outgoing administrations - casts doubt on whether or how eagerly he’ll pursue these necessary negotiations.
Despite his past declarations against the conflict, there’s little evidence supporting success. Many critics argue decisions on the hostage issue reside purely within Netanyahu's government. Lack of clarity on how Trump plans to achieve peace might leave family members questioning if there's any signal of change on the horizon.
Meanwhile, Efron argues Trump’s volatile nature could deter adversaries, leading to unexpected de-escalations not just for Hamas and Israel but possibly impacting international relations with nations like Iran. The thought here is Trump’s strategic unpredictability might result in heightened caution among adversaries, but this perception remains speculative at best.
Looking forward, uncertainties loom large, as the geopolitical fallout remains unpredictable, with the continuation of military strife casting doubt on any potential breakthroughs for Trump’s ambitions. Observers remain uncertain whether his administration can succeed where others have faltered, or if established patterns will simply recur, leaving hostages and human factors behind as political maneuverings take precedence.
