The year may be coming to an end, but the extraordinary political events of the United States election season will cast a long shadow well beyond 2025.
From President-elect Donald Trump’s unprecedented conviction in his New York hush-money trial to President Joe Biden’s delayed exit from the race, the 2024 election has been marked by numerous historic moments. The most notable was Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, as many thought he was finished politically after losing the 2020 election and refusing to accept the results.
On election night, Trump claimed to have secured "an unprecedented and powerful mandate," capturing 312 electoral votes against Harris’s 226. Historically, he had never won the national popular vote but managed to change this dynamic, improving his support among several key demographics and even winning urban areas typically considered Democratic strongholds.
Nevertheless, Trump's popular vote tally was marginal, garnering only 49.9% compared to Harris’s 48.4%. This narrow margin of victory mirrors some of the closest elections in modern history, with only the infamous Bush versus Gore contest approaching such tight numbers.
Analyzing the election's results, Seth Masket, director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, emphasized the continuing era of polarization. He speculated there won’t be substantial shifts but rather entrenched partisanship and incremental changes defining the U.S. political future. "This is still the era of polarization," said Masket.
A pivotal aspect of the electoral outcome was voters' apparent tolerance for Trump’s criminal history and attempts to undermine American democracy. Despite facing four criminal indictments and one conviction, Trump’s narrative of being the victim of a political witch hunt was effectively employed to rally his base. His disastrous handling of the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol only seemed to fortify his support among Republicans, many of whom echoed his unsupported claims of electoral fraud.
Voter concerns during the electoral process leaned significantly toward economic conditions. Economic issues outweighed fears about immigration or abortion rights, shaping the discourse as citizens navigated the high cost of living. Jennifer Victor, associate professor of political science at George Mason University, noted, "The difference between what the macro indicators tell us and what people’s perception of the economy is, is really one of the big stories this year." While overall economic recovery presented strong indicators, individual sentiments remained pessimistic, lending credence to Trump's narrative of economic decline.
Abortion rights also proved to be contentious within the election discourse. Despite Federal protections being diminished during Trump’s previous presidency, Harris faced disappointing turnout among women voters, achieving only 53% of this demographic compared to Trump’s 46%. Some voters, particularly from states like Arizona and Missouri, voted to enshrine abortion rights within their state constitutions yet still cast their presidential ballots for Trump. Kelly Dittmar from the Center for American Women and Politics suggested this paradox may reflect 'bullet voting' trends, where individuals voted solely for the presidential race but skipped lower down the ballot issues.
Another significant factor influencing electoral results was the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel amid the war in Gaza. This policy, aligned closely with Biden’s administration, disillusioned various voter groups, particularly Arab and Muslim communities. For example, voter support for Harris significantly dropped within Dearborn, Michigan, the largest Arab-majority city, from the 69% received by Biden to just 36% for Harris. James Zogby, director of the Arab American Institute, argues this decision marginalized young and minority voters, contributing to disappointing turnout.
Shifting demographic patterns also caught analysts’ attention. The election results showcased an uptick of support for Trump among Latino and Black voters—especially men under 45—indicating potential fracturing of the Democratic Party’s long-standing coalition. About three out of ten Black men under 45 opted for Trump, doubling his support among this demographic from 2020, and Latino men’s allegiance appeared divided almost equally. While some experts caution against jumping to conclusions about realignment, it stands as a real possibility for upcoming elections.
"This could be a ‘blip’ election trend toward Republicans for Black and Hispanic voters, who still mostly favored Democrats," cautioned William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution. He added this shift would require Trump to solidify such gains if they are to endure beyond 2024.
Overall, the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. Election highlights the resilience of political narratives, the fundamental divisions within the electorate, and the enduring skepticism surrounding democracy as Americans navigate complex social and political landscapes. The coming years will serve as a litmus test for both major parties, prompting questions on their strategies, policies, and representation as they head toward the future amid ever-evolving voter sentiments.
