Mexico’s political climate is bracing for turbulence as President-elect Donald Trump reasserts his aggressive stance on immigration and drug trafficking just weeks before taking office. Trump has often been vocal about his intent to label Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, vowing on the first day of his administration to dismantle these powerful criminal groups operating within and affecting American borders.
Claudia Sheinbaum, the newly elected President of Mexico, responded firmly to Trump’s rhetoric, assuring reporters, "We will collaborate with and coordinate with the United States, but we will never subordinate ourselves." This insistence on national sovereignty is particularly relevant considering Trump’s history of interventions using economic leverage to influence bilateral relations.
During a rally before supporters, Trump underscored his plan to tackle illegal drug issues head-on. He announced, "All foreign gang members will be expelled and I will immediately designate the [drug] cartels as foreign terrorist organizations." He also highlighted past communications with Sheinbaum, recalling their discussions surrounding tariffs on Mexican imports should the country fail to curb issues related to immigration and the drug trade.
The alliance between Mexico and the U.S. has been heavily influenced by economic factors, with Mexico remaining the largest trading partner of the U.S. after China. Notably, nearly $500 billion worth of Mexican exports head to the U.S. each year. Experts warn, including Juan Carlos Baker, the former undersecretary of foreign trade, about the serious repercussions tariffs could have on both economies, stating, “The disastrous effects ... would be just too much to handle.”
Trump’s threats come amid heightened discussions surrounding the opioid crisis, particularly the synthetic opioid fentanyl, which has rapidly exacerbated addiction problems across America. His remarks serve as reminders of the past escalations during his first administration when tariffs led to retaliatory measures from Mexico. Baker stressed the importance of mutual cooperation over threats during his comparison of current negotiations to the failed tariff discussions from previous years.
Sheinbaum has already taken charge with clear opposition to unilateral actions from the U.S. government. Recently, she stated, "It’s not with threats or tariffs... we have to cooperate and have mutual understandings to deal with these great challenges." Her administration has been focused on reconstructing the socio-economic framework within Mexico to combat drug-related violence, emphasizing the necessity to target the roots of crime to prevent the youth from being drawn to cartel involvement.
The potential designation of cartels as terrorist organizations raises complex questions about international law and could lead to military action from the U.S. on Mexican soil—actions which could fracture the diplomatic relationship between both countries. U.S. officials have expressed concern over proposals for such interventionist strategies. Some have even suggested direct attacks on cartel leaders utilizing drone strikes, drawing stark warnings from Mexican officials against such tactics.
Sheinbaum’s administration, aware of the sensitive nature of these discussions, has claimed victories within the drug war nonetheless. They reported achieving the largest seizure of fentanyl in Sinaloa recently, with over one ton valued at approximately $400 million. This development was framed as evidence by Trump supporters of the effectiveness of his pressure tactics on Mexico.
Yet, within this high-stakes exchange, Sheinbaum holds firm her stance against U.S. interference. She articulated, "The drugs are consumed [in the United States], the guns [the cartels use] come from there, and lives are lost down here. But ... we don’t accept interference in our country." This narrative highlights the shared responsibility between the two nations, reigniting the debate over how best to handle the crises of drugs and migration.
Through coordinated efforts and clear communication, Sheinbaum aims to establish peace within Mexico, hoping to instill trust among the citizens and gradually stabilize the nation amid transformational collaboration with the U.S. as looming tariffs and hostile policies threaten the decades-long partnership between the two neighbors. With the arrival of Trump’s new presidency, many anticipate these early negotiations will set the tone for the next four years, serving to either fortify or fracture this key North American alliance.
