Donald Trump’s return to the White House has set off ripples of speculation about the future of housing policy in the United States. With the 2024 presidential election freshly concluded, many housing advocates and experts are scrambling to predict what Trump's second term might mean, particularly as the country's home prices continue to soar. The real estate market has been under intense scrutiny, especially amid rising inflation and the affordable housing crisis. Trump's previous presidency saw turbulent housing policies, and now, with history ready to repeat itself, stakeholders across the board are reacting.
One of the issues thrust front and center during the election was housing affordability. During the campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris and now President Trump debated the topic, making it clear how pivotal it was to voters. Ayrianne Parks, senior director at Enterprise, noted, “Housing, for the first time ever, has really been at the top of a presidential campaign. I'm not sure this has ever been the case.” The November 5th election also revealed just how much voters associated inflation with housing affordability, especially as home prices skyrocketed during and after the pandemic, which some estimates claim increased by over 50% since COVID-19 began.
Despite campaigning less on housing issues, Trump promised to eradicate veteran homelessness during his term and claimed he would tackle the drug addiction and mental health crisis plaguing American cities. But, it became apparent during his campaign chest-thumping, mainly through his platform “Agenda 47,” focused more on combustion than creating substantive change. Key areas of Trump’s second term focusing on housing will likely include mass deportation of immigrants, opening federal lands for large-scale construction, and his handling of interest rates and taxation.
Trump has been vocal about implementing the largest deportation program ever, claiming this policy will decrease housing prices. His running mate, J.D. Vance, emphasized this during recent town halls, where he declared, “When you let 25 million illegal aliens … you got to put them somewhere...and that's going to drive the cost of housing through the roof too.” Yet, economic experts are skeptical about this assertion. They argue there’s no solid evidence linking undocumented immigration to housing affordability; rather, deportations could lead to labor market deficits, affecting construction costs.
Real estate advocates, particularly in places like New York, express concerns over such drastic measures. Rachel Fee, the executive director of the New York Housing Conference, explained how the city's affordability crisis preceded any recent influxes of migrants. Instead of addressing the complex realities fighting for affordability, she sees mass deportation as devoid of genuine connection to the city’s housing problems.
Beyond immigration, Trump has hinted at utilizing surplus federal land for large-scale housing construction. He aims to slash regulations, claiming these often account for as much as 30% of new home prices. Just last September, he voiced, “We will open up portions of federal land for large-scale housing construction,” likening it to creating ultra-low tax zones for businesses. Despite lofty promises, his plans raise questions surrounding location viability—would these plans yield housing near transit options or jobs? Fee cautioned, asserting, “It’s not necessarily located where you want to build.”
The most pressing concern for those eyeing the future housing market is the vagaries surrounding interest rates, which are deeply intertwined with housing costs. Trump has made it known he would pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but some analysts remain doubtful these efforts can negate inflationary pressures tied to his broader policy proposals. Cynthia Seifert, a former Texas realtor, remarked, “Trump's proposed economic measures could also increase inflation which often results in increased mortgage rates.” Just after the election results were announced, mortgage rates saw spikes, exemplifying investor concerns over higher borrowing costs.
While Trump is busy laying out plans, the Democratic Party is left to reckon with the fallout from the election. Following Harris’s defeat, many party members reflected on their campaign strategy, arguing it failed to address key voter concerns, particularly among younger demographics and working-class men. Activists argue Trump's appeal through platforms like sports podcasts successfully engaged groups the Democrats overlooked. The focus on cultural issues, particularly around masculinity and economic uncertainty, galvanized these voters, and Democrats now find themselves needing to rethink how they approach these dialogues.
At the close of the election, Trump’s decisive victory over Harris stunned many, with him securing 312 electoral votes compared to Harris’ 226. The success was underscored by solid performance in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, key for Trump's campaign, leading to considerable conversations about the reasons behind these shifts. Several Democratic insiders have suggested party strategy needed to include more engagements with influential male figures in media and sports, evident through calls for more relatable messaging appealing to men and engaging them on platforms they frequent.
Political strategists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have also acknowledged the need for Democrats to pivot, speaking directly to young conservative viewers online, framing opportunities for dialogue and connection. The challenge will be not just to reclaim lost ground but to build bridges to address the multifaceted issues surrounding young men’s growing disconnect from the Democratic Party. The implication is vast; as housing policy becomes intricately tied to these discussions, how effectively can Democrats craft their message to resonate with voters who feel sidelined?
Trump’s election win inevitably rekindles discussions around his potential to bring about drastic changes across several policy landscapes, housing firmly among them. Both sides will need to engage constructively; advocates are eager for more than just rhetoric, seeking substantial action on housing affordability as citizens grapple with one of their most pressing issues. The next few years are sure to reveal whether Trump truly can align his policies with the needs of the nation’s struggling housing markets or if empty promises will once again sway the discourse.
