The political winds are stirring as President-elect Donald Trump rehashes his past promises to initiate what he calls the ‘largest deportation program’ the United States has ever seen. With estimates claiming nearly 40% of the workforce behind some of the country’s most fundamental industries, particularly agriculture and food processing, Trump's approach raises serious questions about the future of the American food supply chain.
Immigration is often at the forefront of heated debates, especially when it intertwines with agricultural labor. Throughout the United States, around two-thirds of the nation’s crop farmworkers are immigrants, with nearly 40% lacking legal work authorization, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor. This percentage becomes even more significant with the realization of how small farms often rely on undocumented labor to maintain their operations.
Take, for example, the plight of Bruce Lampman, the owner of Lampman Dairy Farm located in Idaho. With 350 cows yielding about 26,000 pounds of milk daily, his operation heavily depends on employees willing to tackle the tough jobs. 'We have five to six employees doing the work nobody else will,' he explained, emphasizing the crippling effects mass deportations would have on not just his farm but on agriculture as a whole.
China’s economic competition and logistical challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic have already highlighted vulnerabilities within the U.S. food system—especially labor shortages. With labor pools becoming increasingly limited, particularly among undocumented immigrants, concerns over economic ramifications are shared among many agricultural experts.
Comments by Anita Alves Pena, professor of economics at Colorado State University, echo this sentiment. She noted existing labor shortages and predicted repercussions from policies targeting undocumented laborers without implementing alternative protections. “Farmers across the country talk about labor shortages, and even with the number of unauthorized individuals, they struggle to fill their ranks,” she stated.
The impact of deportations would extend beyond individual farms to food processing plants, significantly affecting the meat industry. Kim Cordova, president of UFCW Local 7, remarked on the heavy reliance of Colorado’s meatpacking industry on immigrant workers: "If you took immigrants out of this workforce, there is no way they can run those packing houses. Mass deportation would kill the industry." These sentiments echo across the meat sector, where layers of the supply chain already exhibit stress due to workforce shortages.
Ethan Lane, vice president of government affairs with the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, characterized labor challenges as the biggest obstacle facing the meat supply chain. He added, "Even before COVID, labor shortages were rampant; the pandemic took it to another level." The precariousness of labor availability has already had tangible consequences—one notable example being the reported closure of three Tyson Foods plants and Butterball’s turkey processing facility.
Meanwhile, the agricultural economy stands to lose not only workers but also consumers. Len Steiner, founder of Steiner Consulting Group, addressed the dual impact of deportations—fewer consumers would demand product, effectively driving down sales. "If we lose population, business cannot thrive," he stated. The interconnectedness of food production, supply chains, and consumer habits highlights how policies intended to eliminate undocumented labor could have unintended consequences on food prices and availability nationwide.
Looking toward the future, discussions about the H-2A visa program, intended for seasonal agricultural workers, reveal limitations. While the number of positions approved under this program has increased significantly over the years, it primarily addresses short-term labor needs. Many agricultural operations, like poultry and dairy farms, require consistent labor throughout the year, leaving them vulnerable without adequate visa options.
While agriculture advocates push for reforms to facilitate pathways for immigrant workers, actions taken under the new administration appear aimed at tightening access to labor sources instead. Advocates for immigrant labor reform argue for sustained programs to allow these workers to gain legal status and contribute to both the agricultural workforce and the economy. Jaime Castaneda from the National Milk Producers Federation stated, "We need to work closely with Congress to show how important foreign workers are to the dairy industry. They are integral to maintaining not only our production levels but also to helping stabilize food prices."
For communities across the nation where immigrant labor is predominant, such policy shifts hint at terrifying prospects. The Western Growers Association predicts increased grocery prices, stating mass deportations could aggravate food inflation familiar to Americans. Historical precedents like the 2018 ICE raids at meatpacking facilities—resulting in drastic increases to ground beef prices—serve as reminders of the fragility of food security tied to labor policies.
The conversation continues to evolve as stakeholders evaluate short- and long-term strategies to maintain agricultural output and stabilize food prices amid these potentially drastic immigration changes. Union leaders, agricultural executives, and economists are sounding alarms, urging policymakers to account for the intertwined fate of the food industry and its workforce.
Maria Villarroel, among other union presidents, commented, "The president-elect's mass deportation plans not only threaten the lives of immigrants but the foundations of our economy. We cannot afford to wage war against our food supply.' It’s clear: if the goal is to eradicate undocumented labor without offering solutions, the American food industry is set for turmoil.
