The political theater surrounding Donald Trump's hush money conviction has ramped up to unexpected levels following his election victory. Judge Juan M. Merchan of New York has announced he will decide as early as next week on how to proceed with what becomes the first criminal conviction of any former president, which could drastically affect the future of Trump's presidency. The case centers around Trump's attempts to cover up a $130,000 payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, made during his 2016 presidential campaign. The payment aimed to silence her allegations of past sexual relations with Trump, which he has vehemently denied.
Initially, the sentencing for this case was scheduled for November 26, but significant developments unfolded following Trump's win. Court documents revealed the case has been effectively put on hold pending discussions between Merchan and the lawyers on both sides. This unprecedented circumstance raises questions about whether the court can impose sentencing without hindering Trump’s constitutional responsibilities.
During the court's deliberation, Trump's lawyers have urged Merchan to throw out the conviction entirely, claiming it could unfairly impede the president-elect's ability to govern. Meanwhile, Manhattan prosecutors have conveyed their desire to find common ground between upholding the jury’s verdict and allowing Trump to fulfill his presidential duties.
Several scenarios could play out as the situation develops:
Waiting Until Trump Leaves Office
One plausible option for Judge Merchan would be to delay sentencing until Trump concludes his term, which would span till at least 2029. This would preserve the verdict without interrupting Trump's presidency. By the end of his second term, Trump would be 82 and over ten years separated from the events at the core of the case.
Yet, if Judge Merchan opts for this route, he may not even be on the bench then, as his term ends before Trump is expected to leave office.
Assessing Trump's Immunity Claim
Another angle for the judge to explore is Trump's appeal based on the broad immunity from criminal prosecution afforded to former presidents by the U.S. Supreme Court, announced earlier this year. Trump's legal team argues this ruling should overturn the conviction due to improper use of evidence related to his presidency during the trial.
Merchan had previously indicated he would rule on this matter before Trump's election, but the recent developments have reshuffled the court's agenda.
Holding Off Until Federal Rulings
It’s also possible for the judge to postpone any decisions until the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals provides clarity on Trump’s request to shift the case from state to federal court. Trump's team has been appealing previous rulings denying this transfer, arguing for their right to assert presidential immunity. This path could put the case on hold even longer, as the court has set deadlines for submissions which coincide with when Trump is to be sworn back in office.
Case Dismissal
On the most optimistic side for Trump, Judge Merchan could choose to dismiss the case entirely by overturning the 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Such action would eliminate sentencing altogether and spare the former president from penalties such as imprisonment.
Trump's attorneys argue this dismissal is necessary to avoid unconstitutional obstacles to his capacity to govern. Conversely, prosecutors, recognizing the unique situation this conviction presents, maintain the necessity of upholding the jury's decision.
Moving Forward to Sentencing
Finally, another potential course could see Judge Merchan proceeding straight to sentencing, provided Trump's attorneys don’t file additional appeals. Legal experts note this decision is highly uncertain; prominent legal scholars suggest the outcome could either culminate in probation or fines but doubt it would result in prison time — viewing any sort of prison sentence as likely temporary at best.
Donald Trump faces not only the repercussions stemming from this hush money case but also grapples with three other legal matters, continuing to prompt the nation to speculate on how his presidency will proceed amid legal hurdles.
With all eyes on the New York court, Judge Merchan's impending decisions could reshape the political fabric of the nation moving forward, as the verdict could serve as precedent and potentially empower or hinder the president-elect's future governance.
