Amid heightened tensions over the war in Ukraine, recent interactions between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have left Ukraine’s European allies feeling sidelined. POLITICO reports that Europe is experiencing what is being termed 'Trump fatigue,' following Trump’s call to Putin five weeks ago, which aimed at kicking off dialogues meant to conclude the conflict.
During the call, Trump expressed his desire to end what he termed a 'horrible war,' which did not sit well with European Union leaders. They voiced their frustration, demanding a seat at the negotiating table and asserting that 'there should be no discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine.' However, these urgent pleas went largely unheard, prompting a series of awkward surprises, including public criticisms by Trump and his deputy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Efforts to bridge the strained relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine continued as discussions were held in Saudi Arabia, resulting in a tentative agreement for a 30-day ceasefire. This truce was contingent on Russia’s agreement to reciprocate. However, when Trump approached Putin again this week to emphasize the ceasefire, the Russian leader outright rejected it, responding instead with a set of seemingly impossible conditions.
Adding to the dire situation, Putin commenced a new series of bombings across Ukrainian cities, deploying hundreds of drones and missiles, a move that went unnoticed by the White House. The day following the attacks, Trump spoke with Zelensky for nearly an hour, characterizing the conversation as 'very good,' stating, 'We’re very much on the right track.'
On March 20, ahead of an EU summit in Brussels, Zelensky provided updates via video call. While presenting a facade of positivity regarding talks with Trump, he vehemently rejected Putin's demands for Ukraine to adopt a neutral stance and downsize its military capabilities, which he insisted would be a rather chaotic outcome.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson reflected on the state of affairs, characterizing the summit as showcasing how embroiled EU leaders are in issues overshadowing their ability to effectively support Ukraine or even rebuild their militaries. The conclusions drawn from the European Council summit underlined the urgent need for enhancing defense capacities. Notably, discussions about a proposed €150 billion loan program aimed at bolstering the European defense industry were wrought with skepticism from EU representatives.
Spain is reportedly advocating for a redirected definition of 'defense' to encompass responses to rising sea levels and illegal migration rather than solely military applications. Furthermore, a proposal by the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, advocating for member states to contribute up to €40 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, appears to have met considerable resistance.
The structure of the EU’s loan plan currently excludes expenditure on U.S. or British manufactured arms, an issue that has raised eyebrows in light of the ongoing collaboration between the UK and France to establish a peacekeeping force for Ukraine. Concerns about the bureaucratic implications of restricting support are becoming more pronounced.
This backdrop of fragmentation continues to challenge any unified defense strategy. On the horizon, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is anticipated to formalize a defense and security pact with the EU during an upcoming summit in May. Both parties are optimistic about this endeavor, yet there are lingering issues regarding fishing rights and other maritime disputes that could mar future cooperation.
Diplomatically, there exists a fresh air of realism among EU officials who are starting to come to terms with their exclusion from negotiations that Trump appears to navigate unilaterally. As Kristersson indicated, it's evident that EU does not fill the role required for defense—a notion echoed broadly amid increasing calls for a more unified European strategy.
Amid this complexity, the French President Emmanuel Macron has announced plans to reconvene leaders for a new summit focused on potential peacekeeping forces, even as the situation in Ukraine continues to escalate, with Putin maintaining offensive operations.
